31 October 2019

Projections 2019: First in War, First in Peace, First in the Major Leagues


I guess I'll start from the beginning.

One of my favorite baseball memories involves a road trip to Montreal I took with my friend Dan in the Summer of 2003. We saw the Montreal Expos host the San Francisco Giants at Olympic Stadium. We bought tickets from a scalper in the parking lot under the park for less than face value ($20 CAN/ea. if I recall correctly). We took seats along the third base line. We ate smoked meat sandwiches.

It was a better attended game than usual. This was the middle of Barry Bonds' monster years, plus it was Dennis Martinez bobblehead day, and El Presidente himself threw out the first pitch. Unfortunately for fans hoping to see Bonds, Barry did not play: he had left the team to be with his ailing father Bobby who would pass a short time later.

Sidney Ponson, recently traded to the Giants from Baltimore, held the Nats scoreless for 8.1. Ponson had the lead. He was cruising. It unraveled so quickly that you could have blinked and missed it.

Jose Vidro doubled. Ponson walked Vlad. Ponson walked Orlando Cabrera, pushing Vidro and Vlad over and loading the bases. Giants manager (and former Expos manager) Felipe Alou pulled Ponson for Tim Worrell. He got Wil Cordero to strike out. The Giants were one out away. Brad Wilkerson was not impressed.*

*Everything is from memory except this passage. Thank you, Internet and Associated Press.

If my memory serves, and it often doesn't, it was a towering blast to center. There was no doubt when it left the bat. The Expos won on a walk-off grand slam in a game where they hadn't even previously scored. They swept the series.

They swept the season series.

I was hooked.

Projections as of 31 October 2019



It felt like kismet, honestly. I had just started graduate school at the University of Maryland in College Park, on the outer reaches of the Washington, DC, Metro commuter line. I was already lonely and overwhelmed.

A ray of sunshine burned through my overcast mood when, on September 29, 2004, Major League Baseball, the owners of the Montreal franchise following some shuffling that would indirectly result in World Series championships for the Marlins in 2003 and the Red Sox in 2004, announced that the franchise would be relocating to the nation's capital.

The Expos! They followed me down to Washington!

Just over six months later, April 14, 2005, I'd be sitting in the lower bowl behind home plate with my friend Peter when President George W. Bush threw out the ceremonial first pitch, when Mayor Tony Williams was cheered and Councilwoman Linda Cropp was booed, and when Livan Hernandez threw the first official pitch in a regular season home game in Washington, DC, in a third of a century.

It was way outside. The umpire called it a strike. It was a good sign.

Livo got the win. Chad "Chief" Cordero got the save on the way to a league-leading 47. Vinny Castilla needed a single for the cycle when he was pegged by Randy Choate, the boos raining down nearly as hard as they did for the aforementioned councilwoman. It was a celebratory win on the way to the Majors' best record at the All Star Break and a disappointing 81-81 finish. It was the high water mark of the franchise. Until June 8, 2010.



I don't know how many losses I sat through, but it was far fewer than I deserved to see considering the Nationals' abysmal record from 2006 through 2009. I witnessed Ryan Zimmerman walk-offs and triumphs on the Fourth of July on the way to 90- and 100- loss seasons. But when the Nationals used their overall number one pick to land Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 draft, it felt like something was about to change.

It would still be another two years before the Nationals would reach the postseason, but there was never before anything like the atmosphere at the reasonably new Nationals Park when Stephen Strasburg made his major league debut. The crowd was electric. The crowd was red. Not Philly red, or Braves red, and definitely not Oriole orange, but Nationals Red. My then girlfriend, later fiancee, now wife Jen and I purchased Strasburg shirseys before he even threw his first MLB pitch. It was a sound investment.

I sincerely doubt any moment at Nationals Park surpassed that first "Strasmas" until the Nationals clinched their first pennant at home against the Cardinals this past October.



With raised expectations often come disappointment, and boy was their disappointment. I wasn't at game five in 2012, but I was listening to it on the radio in Memphis, which is decidedly Cardinals territory, while Jen sat (actually, stood) through the ecstasy of taking the big lead and the agony of giving it away. We would watch more postseason leads slip away from the safety of our home, first alone but for our loyal hound, later crying in muted screams with our firstborn sleeping soundly a couple of rooms away.

By late May 2019, Nats fans had to start wondering: had the window closed? Bryce Harper, whose home debut Jen and I also attended, whose shirsey I had also purchased having never seen him play, had moved on. The Nats might have frittered away the best opportunity of any team between 2012 and 2018 to win a title. It felt like the bad years might be coming down the bend, once again.

That's why it was a treat to watch them fight their way back to respectability by late summer. Fending off the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Diamondbacks on the way to claiming the top wild card spot was enough. It really was. After being 12 games below .500 before it even got hot outside, it would have been greedy to expect more.




The best way to gamble is with the house's money. It was the only currency Nationals fans carried with them this fall. They weren't supposed to win when they were trailing the Brewers in the 7th inning of the wild card game. They weren't supposed to beat the 106-win Dodgers. They... well they were probably supposed to beat the Cards.

They sure in hell weren't supposed to beat the Houston Astros, probably the best team in baseball, with a rotation that drew comparisons to late-1990s Pedro Martinez and a lineup that drew comparisons to current-day Mike Trout. What did the Nationals have? Great starters? Sure. Clutch hitters? Yeah, but how long can you coast on clutchness? The bullpen? They were excellent so far in October but they were historically bad in the regular season.

But they had house money. They had Brian Dozier and Calma. They had GERARDO PARRA AND BABY SHARK FORCRISSAKES. They had just enough talent, and a heaping helping of good luck. They had #OnePursuit.

And they had the fans who never quit. Not when their team was losing 100 games. Not when Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman couldn't even get correctly printed goddamned jerseys. Not when the Cardinals crushed their hopes in 2012.

Today, fans of the DC baseball club get what every loyal fan base deserves. They get redemption. They get a parade. The 2019 Washington Nationals are the 2019 World Series Champions.

30 October 2019

Projections 2019: Astros over Nats in Game Seven is Matter of Degree


Game Seven. It's the greatest phrase in all of North American sports. And yet, in the World Series at least, it happens surprisingly often. After a dearth of games seven from 2003 through 2010, five World Series have gone to the seventh game in the last nine seasons (including this one). The ten-year moving average of games played per World Series has gone from five to six games in that span.



If we were to assume that one team has to have home field advantage, and that interleague advantage is about 55%, we should see six-game and seven-game World Series happen at about equal intervals, something like 31% of the time; five-game series should happen about a quarter of the time and four-game sweeps should occur about one in every eight World Series.

Over the last 107 World Series held since the best-of-seven rule was made official in 1922, that means we should have seen about 13 sweeps, 26-27 five-gamers, and 34 six- and seven-game Fall Classics. In fact, 38 of the 107 World Series held since the best-of-seven rule was made official in 1922 have gone all the way. It's nearly twice as likely that a World Series goes seven games than six.

Perhaps the more surprising thing is that there are so few five- and six-game Series.



So what's going to happen tonight? My model gives the Houston Astros a 61% chance of winning at home, but keep in mind that I do not consider lineups or pitching match-ups in my model. Other systems, and bettors, do, and they have more faith in the Washington Nationals than my spreadsheet does.

Projections as of 30 October 2019



For the first time this postseason, touts like the Nationals more than I do. Much has been made of Max Scherzer starting game seven despite missing game five due to debilitating neck and trap spasms. Systems and bettors that consider the rotation in their calculus seem to believe he'll be the difference maker. The smart money is still on Houston, but as 56% favorites rather than 61%.



Two other systems are even more bullish on DC, thanks to their accounting for the talent of Max Scherzer. Both FiveThirtyEight and FanGraphs' ZiPS projections make the Astros marginal favorites at best.



The debate between analytics and gut instinct rages on, but there is grandeur in this view of life, with its several powers, having been originally breathed by the Creator into a few forms or into one; and that, whilst this planet has gone cycling on according to the fixed law of gravity, from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being evolved.

28 October 2019

Projections 2019: Astros' Third Straight Victory Means Another Win or Die for Underdog Nats


The Washington Nationals' Cinderella story is one game away from an ignominious ending. With a second straight drubbing and third straight victory, the Houston Astros took a 3-2 lead in the 2019 World Series. They are one win away from their second Commissioner's Trophy in three seasons. They are 62% favorites to finish the job in game six.

Projections as of 24 October 2019



My numbers and 5Dimes bettors agree on the odds for the first time all series.



Up out of the lampshade, startled by the overhead light, flew a large nocturnal butterfly that began circling the room. The strains of Baby Shark rose up weakly from below.

27 October 2019

Projections 2019: Astros Favored over Nats Once Again


The Houston Astros evened up the 2019 World Series last night against the Washington Nationals, but the two teams' prospects are anything but even. The favorite is still 61% to win it all, but as of this morning that favorite is from Houston. The most likely discrete outcome is Stros in six.

Projections as of 24 October 2019



Touts at 5Dimes remain more bullish on Houston than my numbers.



I wrote at the start that this was a record of models and simulations, and running them beside Henry towards the evening glass of beer, I found the one prayer that seemed to serve the autumn mood: O Baseball Gods, You've done enough, You've robbed me of enough, I'm too tired and old to learn to love, leave me alone forever.

26 October 2019

Projections 2019: Astros Get One Back at Nats Park


The Houston Astros got one back last night at Nationals Park, and the Washington Nationals' chances of winning their first ever World Series took a hit. The most likely discrete outcome is now a Nats win in five. It makes sense that if they're going to win, Washington is most likely to do so before heading back to Houston. With the advantage in RPScore and home field, should Houston even it up tonight they will almost certainly be the favorites once again.

Projections as of 24 October 2019



The smart money at 5Dimes has been cooler on the Nats than I have been for most of the postseason. Today we see the biggest gap this October, with touts betting that I'm overvaluing the Nationals by about 10 percentage points.



Max Scherzer stepped into his private boat and waved goodbye and sailed back over a year and in and out of weeks and through a day and into the night of his very own room where he found his supper waiting for him—and it was still hot.

24 October 2019

Projections 2019: The Nationals Have Won Two World Series Games against the Astros and OMG Wow


The citizens of Washington, DC, went 86 years between World Series game wins; they waited another 24 hours for their next one. The red hot Washington Nationals refuse to cower before the best team in baseball (or are they?). The Houston Astros will need to regain their footing on their opponent's home turf. The odds are against them.

Projections as of 24 October 2019



Bettors at 5Dimes agree the Stros are in a tight spot, but they also continue to believe that my system is overrating the Nats' chances. Later on the smart money will understand how the numbers loved the Nationals, that they did dare much for their sake.

23 October 2019

Projections 2019: Nats Steal Game, Lead from Astros


The Washington Nationals have won a World Series game. A Washington baseball club hadn't won a World Series game in 86 years. Now the Nats are 1-0 favorites over the Houston Astros, the best team in baseball this year.

The most likely discrete outcome remains an Astros victory, now in seven games rather than six. The Nats' best chance is a clinching game five that saves them from returning to Houston.

Projections as of 23 October 2019



Bettors over at 5Dimes think I'm a bit too optimistic about DC celebrating their first Fall Classic triumph since Calvin Coolidge's presidency, the big money staying in Texas for now.



This postseason has proven to be one of excitement and sleeplessness. It will soon be over, and it will be a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known.

21 October 2019

Projections 2019: Astros Open as Big Favorites versus Party Crasher Nats


With a late blast, the Houston Astros announced that they would wait no longer to claim the American League crown. They head to the World Series as heavy favorites against the first-timers from Washington.

Projections as of 21 October 2019



The betting markets agree, selling the Nationals at an even steeper discount than my model would imply. It's not just about home field advantage: the Astros are far and away the best team in baseball, sporting a much better RPScore than the Nats. Of course, the same was true about the Dodgers.



Should the Nationals falter, O my brothers, remember sometimes thy little Anthony that was. Amen. And all that cal.

19 October 2019

Projections 2019: Yanks Stay Alive, Still Face Long Odds


The New York Yankees decided in the bottom of the first inning that they would play another day. They spent the next eight innings ensuring their survival. The Houston Astros will host games six and seven with two chances of thwarting the rebellion. The Washington Nationals wait to meet the victors on their home turf.

Projections as of 16 October 2019



By holding on in game five, the Yankees doubled their chances of winning the ALCS. The Astros are still very, very likely to stop them, 60% favorites to put the series away tonight in Houston.



For DJ LeMahieu, the need to understand has passed, at least for the moment. All that is left is love and wonder.

18 October 2019

Projections 2019: Stros on the Verge, Yanks on the Brink


The Astros of Houston last night once again becalmed the Yankees of New York City with facile despatch. Houston are 92% to win their second National League title in three years. New York is in a tight spot. The Nationals of the Federal District await.

Projections as of 16 October 2019



If the Yankees are to complete the comeback, it'll be against long-odds, needing two wins in Houston. The Astros are slightly better than 50-50 to finish off the Bombers tonight at The Stadium.



It's funny. Stats don’t ever tell anybody anything. If they do, they start missing everybody.

16 October 2019

Projections 2019: DC Gonna Party Like It's 1933


For the first time in the history of the franchise, dating back to their humble start in 1969 as the Montreal Expos, the Washington Nationals are going to the World Series. For the first time since 1933, a Washington, DC, baseball club is going to the World Series. For the first time in his fifteen year career, Ryan Zimmerman is going to the World Series.

Projections as of 16 October 2019



In what was apparently another baseball game last night, the Houston Astros quieted the New York Yankees to take a two-games-to-one lead, forcing at least one more game back in the Lone Star State. Houston has a 77% chance of advancing to a second World Series in three seasons.



History can be a fickle muse, but for Nats fans this year she's been more than accommodating. It is not often that someone comes along who is a true friend and a good writer. Clio's been both.

15 October 2019

Projections 2019: Nats One Game Away from First World Series


The Fightin' Howie Kendricks are one game away from the World Series. Having defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the 2019 National League Championship Series, the Washington Nationals need one more win to claim their first ever pennant; their World Series probability, at 39%, is almost certainly the highest in the history of the franchise.

Projections as of 15 October 2019



The Cardinals have a 24-to-1 chance of coming back in the series. The Nats have about a 60% chance of completing the sweep tonight at Nats park.



The ALCS resumes this evening in New York, with the New York Yankees once again underdogs to the Houston Astros (at least by my numbers). The most likely results involve an Astros win in five or six.



The Bronx Bombers are trying to claim their first pennant this decade, in the final year of the decade. The most successful North American sports franchise in history hasn't finished a decade without winning a league championship since the 1910's, a decade which ended with them purchasing the contract of one George Herman Ruth.

Ruth's legacy lives on in the mammoth proportions of Big Apple assassins like Aaron Judge. Yankee fans are expecting him to produce on the biggest stage of his career. They will be overjoyed should he deliver. They love Big Brother.

14 October 2019

Projections 2019: Houston Bites Back, Regains Factorial Supremacy


The Houston Astros evened up the series against the New York Yankees last night in walk-off fashion. They will head to the Big Apple as favorites once again. In the meantime, they will just live.

Projections as of 14 October 2019





13 October 2019

Projections 2019: Yanks Smother Stros, Favored Nats Head Home up 2-0


The Washington Nationals head back home up two games to none, while the New York Yankees steal one on the road. With the Tanakas, they were always on the most intimate terms. Gleyber, as well as Giancarlo, really loved them; and they were both ever sensible of the warmest gratitude towards the persons who, by bringing him into The Bronx, had been the means of uniting them.

Projections as of 13 October 2019





12 October 2019

Projections 2019: Nats One Closer


Just charts today, no commentary, for whatever our struggles and triumphs, however we may suffer them, all too soon they bleed into a wash, just like watery ink on paper.

Projections as of 12 October 2019





11 October 2019

Projections 2019: Astros Get Job Done, Remain Favorites


The Tampa Bay Rays fought gallantly but couldn't manage to win a game in Houston. The favored Astros move onto the LCS, where they will have home field against the Yankees in four out of seven possible games. My numbers give the Stros an overwhelming 45% chance of winning the 2019 World Series.

Projections as of 11 October 2019



The St. Louis Cardinals host the Washington Nationals in tonight's game one match-up. The Nats are modest 53-47% favorites, but the most commonly simulated outcome was a Cards win in seven. St. Louis' home field advantage is not quite enough to overcome Washington's superior RPScore.



My system likes the Astros a lot more than the New York Yankees: an RPScore 62 points better than New York's plus home field advantage makes Houston a substantial favorite in the American League Championship Series.

This leaves the Bombers with a 35% chance of winning their only pennant this decade. Should they fail to do so, it will be the first decade since the 1910s in which the New York American League club did not claim a league championship.



Bettors at 5Dimes are not as bearish on the Yankees as I am (or as bullish on Houston). Despite their similar winning percentages, Houston's advantages in run prevention pay off in their RPScore rating relative to New York.




At present, the most likely of 32 distinct World Series outcomes is an Astros win over Washington in six games. A Nats World Series Championship first pops up on the list at number seven, whereas the Yanks and Cards show up at the 11th and 13th spots, respectively.



The Nats/Expos franchise has never won a pennant. A Washington, D.C., ballclub hasn't reached the World Series since losing to the New York Giants in 1933. In that series, future Cooperstown resident Sam Rice stepped in for one final at bat at the age of 43. The old man was dreaming about the lions.