11 October 2019

Projections 2019: Astros Get Job Done, Remain Favorites

The Tampa Bay Rays fought gallantly but couldn't manage to win a game in Houston. The favored Astros move onto the LCS, where they will have home field against the Yankees in four out of seven possible games. My numbers give the Stros an overwhelming 45% chance of winning the 2019 World Series.

Projections as of 11 October 2019

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Washington Nationals in tonight's game one match-up. The Nats are modest 53-47% favorites, but the most commonly simulated outcome was a Cards win in seven. St. Louis' home field advantage is not quite enough to overcome Washington's superior RPScore.

My system likes the Astros a lot more than the New York Yankees: an RPScore 62 points better than New York's plus home field advantage makes Houston a substantial favorite in the American League Championship Series.

This leaves the Bombers with a 35% chance of winning their only pennant this decade. Should they fail to do so, it will be the first decade since the 1910s in which the New York American League club did not claim a league championship.

Bettors at 5Dimes are not as bearish on the Yankees as I am (or as bullish on Houston). Despite their similar winning percentages, Houston's advantages in run prevention pay off in their RPScore rating relative to New York.

At present, the most likely of 32 distinct World Series outcomes is an Astros win over Washington in six games. A Nats World Series Championship first pops up on the list at number seven, whereas the Yanks and Cards show up at the 11th and 13th spots, respectively.

The Nats/Expos franchise has never won a pennant. A Washington, D.C., ballclub hasn't reached the World Series since losing to the New York Giants in 1933. In that series, future Cooperstown resident Sam Rice stepped in for one final at bat at the age of 43. The old man was dreaming about the lions.

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