tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63903445514059912292024-03-19T04:22:33.053-04:00Rational Pastimeanalysis within reasonJD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.comBlogger418125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-67689226440971888742019-10-31T11:58:00.000-04:002019-10-31T12:09:03.541-04:00Projections 2019: First in War, First in Peace, First in the Major Leagues<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjlr3uAF3_aKcXSSwz_v6dHPZnp7geWn5X6YJRoXfOyGscjKQa2345CEf3wrpVz8fuH7f77vGoGaLaGIOb4aWZMf1IrtKkCxVXKyn5wzfz_Tc0qjv1sfgkShWcZLyiagET_oC7jEoisrVU/s1600/progressive-10-30.png" width="720px" /></div>
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I guess I'll start from the beginning.<br />
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One of my favorite baseball memories involves a road trip to Montreal I took with my friend Dan in the Summer of 2003. We saw the <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=230817120" target="_blank">Montreal Expos host the San Francisco Giants at Olympic Stadium</a>. We bought tickets from a scalper in the parking lot under the park for less than face value ($20 CAN/ea. if I recall correctly). We took seats along the third base line. We ate smoked meat sandwiches.<br />
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It was a better attended game than usual. This was the middle of Barry Bonds' monster years, plus it was Dennis Martinez bobblehead day, and El Presidente himself threw out the first pitch. Unfortunately for fans hoping to see Bonds, Barry did not play: he had left the team to be with his ailing father Bobby who would pass a short time later.<br />
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Sidney Ponson, recently traded to the Giants from Baltimore, held the Nats scoreless for 8.1. Ponson had the lead. He was cruising. It unraveled so quickly that you could have blinked and missed it.<br />
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Jose Vidro doubled. Ponson walked Vlad. Ponson walked Orlando Cabrera, pushing Vidro and Vlad over and loading the bases. Giants manager (and former Expos manager) Felipe Alou pulled Ponson for Tim Worrell. He got Wil Cordero to strike out. The Giants were one out away. Brad Wilkerson was not impressed.*<br />
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<i>*Everything is from memory except this passage. Thank you, Internet and Associated Press.</i><br />
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If my memory serves, and it often doesn't, it was a towering blast to center. There was no doubt when it left the bat. The Expos won on a walk-off grand slam in a game where they hadn't even previously scored. They swept the series.<br />
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They swept the season series.<br />
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I was hooked.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2oSrrcuCS6Pt6ST7N6aPNZ8NyPxXU1aAY2fLBcGqfuU_QDeGe3RU6EAzuFCx1xfIEvU_CVNBLNJp2kcdjfx4rYlNoB9V7UA20ufUbcSk3X241xq6qdLdSxMvBLPvkUJod3b-AvhSLnr0/s1600/ws-10-30.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 31 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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It felt like kismet, honestly. I had just started graduate school at the University of Maryland in College Park, on the outer reaches of the Washington, DC, Metro commuter line. I was already lonely and overwhelmed.<br />
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A ray of sunshine burned through my overcast mood when, on September 29, 2004, Major League Baseball, the owners of the Montreal franchise following some shuffling that would indirectly result in World Series championships for the Marlins in 2003 and the Red Sox in 2004, announced that <a href="https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=1891484" target="_blank">the franchise would be relocating to the nation's capital</a>.<br />
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The Expos! They followed me down to Washington!<br />
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Just over six months later, April 14, 2005, I'd be sitting in the lower bowl behind home plate with my friend Peter when President George W. Bush threw out the ceremonial first pitch, when Mayor Tony Williams was cheered and <a href="https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/linda-cropp-the-woman-who-almost-kept-the-nats-out-of-dc/65-368674342" target="_blank">Councilwoman Linda Cropp was booed</a>, and when Livan Hernandez threw the first official pitch in a regular season home game in Washington, DC, in a third of a century.<br />
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It was way outside. The umpire called it a strike. It was a good sign.<br />
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Livo got the win. Chad "Chief" Cordero got the save on the way to a league-leading 47. Vinny Castilla needed a single for the cycle when he was pegged by Randy Choate, the boos raining down nearly as hard as they did for the aforementioned councilwoman. It was a celebratory win on the way to the Majors' best record at the All Star Break and a disappointing 81-81 finish. It was the high water mark of the franchise. Until June 8, 2010.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiohUVOZniuS61SzeMpE2uARqIEnicP6K-nNy5OQzBTL19QtpRtVm02NwQHmIzlk3_8JIomg2EvnBTRoK41qmz1UVDCSHicWjfUIxw5L5UmZlfrrPizLV8zYr8dp4wzzO6udkSyQnRf828/s1600/progressive-all-series.png" width="720px" /></div>
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I don't know how many losses I sat through, but it was far fewer than I deserved to see considering the Nationals' abysmal record from 2006 through 2009. I witnessed Ryan Zimmerman walk-offs and triumphs on the Fourth of July on the way to 90- and 100- loss seasons. But when the Nationals used their overall number one pick to land Stephen Strasburg in the 2009 draft, it felt like something was about to change.<br />
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It would still be another two years before the Nationals would reach the postseason, but there was never before anything like the atmosphere at the reasonably new Nationals Park when <a href="https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/6/9/1508668/hype-fails-to-live-up-to-stephen" target="_blank">Stephen Strasburg made his major league debut</a>. The crowd was electric. The crowd was <i>red</i>. Not Philly red, or Braves red, and definitely not Oriole orange, but <i>Nationals Red.</i> My then girlfriend, later fiancee, now wife Jen and I purchased <a href="https://twitter.com/RationalPastime/status/1189873854149275648" target="_blank">Strasburg shirseys</a> before he even threw his first MLB pitch. It was a sound investment.<br />
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I sincerely doubt any moment at Nationals Park surpassed that first "Strasmas" until the Nationals clinched their first pennant at home against the Cardinals this past October.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUS-a_ZHDXSROV_X7lb2DbDF-BsCH8NSs4Eg_JDcNFi4sbKNlIdjs1oVrfE-S7tTrTlFa6qpywddxfpSnSZrRBPyQ6c6j_L4ljAswx8WX8JMmuQ2jxMyuOP_Vs1tbJ49m7hZmABcnnAr8/s1600/prog-rpscore.png" width="720px" /></div>
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With raised expectations often come disappointment, and boy was their disappointment. I wasn't at game five in 2012, but I was listening to it on the radio in Memphis, which is decidedly Cardinals territory, while Jen sat (actually, stood) through the ecstasy of taking the big lead and the agony of giving it away. We would watch more postseason leads slip away from the safety of our home, first alone but for our loyal hound, later crying in muted screams with our firstborn sleeping soundly a couple of rooms away.<br />
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By late May 2019, Nats fans had to start wondering: had the window closed? Bryce Harper, whose home debut Jen and I also attended, whose shirsey I had also purchased having never seen him play, had moved on. The Nats might have frittered away the best opportunity of any team between 2012 and 2018 to win a title. It felt like the bad years might be coming down the bend, once again.<br />
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That's why it was a treat to watch them fight their way back to respectability by late summer. Fending off the Mets, Phillies, Cubs and Diamondbacks on the way to claiming the top wild card spot was enough. It really was. After being 12 games below .500 before it even got hot outside, it would have been greedy to expect more.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="135px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1035273045&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The best way to gamble is with the house's money. It was the only currency Nationals fans carried with them this fall. They weren't supposed to win when they were trailing the Brewers in the 7th inning of the wild card game. They weren't supposed to beat the 106-win Dodgers. They... well they were probably supposed to beat the Cards.<br />
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They sure in hell weren't supposed to beat the Houston Astros, <a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html" target="_blank">probably the best team in baseball</a>, with a rotation that drew comparisons to late-1990s Pedro Martinez and a lineup that drew comparisons to current-day Mike Trout. What did the Nationals have? Great starters? Sure. Clutch hitters? Yeah, but how long can you coast on clutchness? The bullpen? They were excellent so far in October but they were historically bad in the regular season.<br />
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But they had house money. They had Brian Dozier and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_zgKRBrT0Y" target="_blank">Calma</a>. They had <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l90AySVWgag" target="_blank">GERARDO PARRA AND BABY SHARK FORCRISSAKES</a>. They had just enough talent, and a heaping helping of good luck. They had <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23OnePursuit" target="_blank">#OnePursuit</a>.<br />
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And they had the fans who never quit. Not when their team was losing 100 games. <a href="https://blog.letteddywin.com/2009/04/17/washington-natinals/" target="_blank">Not when Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman couldn't even get correctly printed goddamned jerseys</a>. Not when the Cardinals crushed their hopes in 2012.<br />
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Today, fans of the DC baseball club get what every loyal fan base deserves. They get redemption. They get a parade. The 2019 Washington Nationals are the 2019 World Series Champions.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-46246825672950950472019-10-30T11:19:00.001-04:002019-10-30T11:19:41.932-04:00Projections 2019: Astros over Nats in Game Seven is Matter of Degree<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyd_SXKiRkRMn0Hm5JBpr0d-WhVk63usZZwzJNJ_cch43RIPzdFc7t6vOd24Ce3oHuEbDuyrAf1dMWsBzkPeSqKRrMHyBQn6fUZtcUZ6S5_y5mALnQer8ULJiecY7GlRnAbKGrzk8zRU0/s1600/progressive-10-29.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Game Seven. It's the greatest phrase in all of North American sports. And yet, in the World Series at least, it happens surprisingly often. After a dearth of games seven from 2003 through 2010, five World Series have gone to the seventh game in the last nine seasons (including this one). The ten-year moving average of games played per World Series has gone from five to six games in that span.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqaaGDRvYgPViy7JTOC6gPe2k8rYNpYMvG8Q8wyWXIPLkSca-pZmEYAL_o7dhXec6FWjFmSmKoacEsahfeusnC2pNeQ88EmVNQlDchrd7PvLJThyphenhyphenhLMt37JPCr1xvcCXvOIaMSJDDPp4w/s1600/ws-historical-games.png" width="720px" /></div>
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If we were to assume that one team has to have home field advantage, and that interleague advantage is about 55%, we should see six-game and seven-game World Series happen at about equal intervals, something like 31% of the time; five-game series should happen about a quarter of the time and four-game sweeps should occur about one in every eight World Series.<br />
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Over the last 107 World Series held since the best-of-seven rule was made official in 1922, that means we should have seen about 13 sweeps, 26-27 five-gamers, and 34 six- and seven-game Fall Classics. In fact, 38 of the 107 World Series held since the best-of-seven rule was made official in 1922 have gone all the way. It's nearly twice as likely that a World Series goes seven games than six.<br />
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Perhaps the more surprising thing is that there are so few five- and six-game Series.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU1FPJ7V1tyteVEH1c77QsOjA6HNmi1JfcBVYNkfFUhlkSEXlSsmNT6B4jTiFhL7Q6laAfoEkv0BPhOYG5MT6owGbZ98ZF23zgce0ZYPpmuR6Qb-NKj5jIshR7a0_B_kXLvYnP3uU7Ha4/s1600/ws-historical-frequency.png" width="720px" /></div>
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So what's going to happen tonight? My model gives the Houston Astros a 61% chance of winning at home, but keep in mind that I do not consider lineups or pitching match-ups in my model. Other systems, and bettors, do, and they have more faith in the Washington Nationals than my spreadsheet does.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBpO4E166et08hoydi2zws3UMTqRDvfjo0vzHzhbjUG3jETa4x5MMkRS50Hl5jugfS8z4rAxSUrveCsa5Yj7eBU7u98EWjGZD2bvIwXj9qd1eXMRaHrtWIwqFCFh_CWVnLchd2Fc1r-Og/s1600/ws-10-29.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 30 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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For the first time this postseason, <a href="https://www.5dimes.eu/odds/Baseball/MLB/" target="_blank">touts like the Nationals more than I do</a>. Much has been made of Max Scherzer <a href="https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/nationals/max-scherzer-says-hes-good-after-playing-catch-outfield" target="_blank">starting game seven</a> despite missing game five due to debilitating neck and trap spasms. Systems and bettors that consider the rotation in their calculus seem to believe he'll be the difference maker. The smart money is still on Houston, but as 56% favorites rather than 61%.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1223011057&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Two other systems are even more bullish on DC, thanks to their accounting for the talent of Max Scherzer. Both <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo" target="_blank">FiveThirtyEight</a> and <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/post-season-zips?season=2019&series=WS" target="_blank">FanGraphs' ZiPS</a> projections make the Astros marginal favorites at best.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1208001889&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The debate between analytics and gut instinct rages on, but there is grandeur in this view of life, with its several powers, having been originally breathed by the Creator into a few forms or into one; and that, whilst this planet has gone cycling on according to the fixed law of gravity, from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being evolved.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-57354974513258275282019-10-28T10:12:00.001-04:002019-10-28T10:12:51.459-04:00Projections 2019: Astros' Third Straight Victory Means Another Win or Die for Underdog Nats<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEho7YoAPuKBoZVZb_6ZYX9mhTkbqviQQVG-ymldOMvbue_wquO4QonWVg1TzfU-LhLGq2SCGE7xAKxlQBw-8qloiRaKhSxL8NhDomzK4DOFgO6_NDEsiXzG9jOZsXLPD_Qkbl90Vn0TOK0/s1600/progressive-10-27.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Washington Nationals' Cinderella story is one game away from an ignominious ending. With a second straight drubbing and third straight victory, the Houston Astros took a 3-2 lead in the 2019 World Series. They are one win away from their second Commissioner's Trophy in three seasons. They are 62% favorites to finish the job in game six.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVk3P5npcfhPjcxGYoxaSmdc3kQCuAHdGWrP1VQFKQ15HTuVzpeMRGzirRSKVlxn6KFGHSRWLfJS779R3lx9VJWPe-Z3B-iI45uWqHpbzwlacwAWy91-CBT1UM8gh2HYkwrOh86kyonoA/s1600/ws-10-27.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 24 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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My numbers and 5Dimes bettors agree on the odds for the first time all series.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1223011057&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Up out of the lampshade, startled by the overhead light, flew a large nocturnal butterfly that began circling the room. The strains of Baby Shark rose up weakly from below.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-52859342539167645352019-10-27T16:24:00.000-04:002019-10-27T16:24:31.885-04:00Projections 2019: Astros Favored over Nats Once Again<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjB5lX4qTZcXA_VmpQmqNYMtHV_lfods3OycYL2F2FbemRIcazTCxRIDlm5XEpvW1XiuKp0ha0RzcNsgzWRQch4i-bEB2IZbRylyE84lqYNFJRia6vjN1SaPyaBaYz7W7Sej11Ml8qvOY8/s1600/progressive-10-26.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Houston Astros evened up the 2019 World Series last night against the Washington Nationals, but the two teams' prospects are anything but even. The favorite is still 61% to win it all, but as of this morning that favorite is from Houston. The most likely discrete outcome is Stros in six.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmkUM1jR_ZsNDWNMX9BWl4Y3PYriEn5uD2B20yAR-yGZYFUcejMMH34D9kzfxupQG9lNFXM3rSccBrNFIY8kVyZ2E6Pb5ApaT4SJ4NCBNHYrZ2u-TizgV8UKnrJw0xr6sYyrgm4uDfvFI/s1600/ws-10-26.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 24 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Touts at <a href="https://www.5dimes.eu/odds/Baseball/Today" target="_blank">5Dimes</a> remain more bullish on Houston than my numbers.<br />
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<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1223011057&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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I wrote at the start that this was a record of models and simulations, and running them beside Henry towards the evening glass of beer, I found the one prayer that seemed to serve the autumn mood: O Baseball Gods, You've done enough, You've robbed me of enough, I'm too tired and old to learn to love, leave me alone forever.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-48605837157558617802019-10-26T12:02:00.000-04:002019-10-26T12:02:10.451-04:00Projections 2019: Astros Get One Back at Nats Park<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLhfKSkKPn4kcpe72KYuDugpP5dGNzp8yt-nqt0TtCpY87y-r1LtDCX4nXV5KnUmAC_LZXiREMhgjm9cUTTENhis97kaOMfhhxZM7pi4DrHKqfxbUyUm-ATO-yHSuyomeaBvVDw6FFYvs/s1600/progressive-10-25.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Houston Astros got one back last night at Nationals Park, and the Washington Nationals' chances of winning their first ever World Series took a hit. The most likely discrete outcome is now a Nats win in five. It makes sense that if they're going to win, Washington is most likely to do so before heading back to Houston. With the advantage in <a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html">RPScore</a> and home field, should Houston even it up tonight they will almost certainly be the favorites once again.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmrDzYo1s6usj4wRwDlWU5lWBWcP_anxWHWQtoqq93e7YLwJv2jkHWT_YsazzfYZ_zr2LwLFxZV30MFLdDZEpvWL4PZ7uZ9UvyZJxeWw3lQ88Zxxr9yAb8aTn0bsUNp5KBHFp3H56zyh8/s1600/ws-10-25.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 24 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The smart money at <a href="https://www.5dimes.eu/odds/Baseball/Today" target="_blank">5Dimes</a> has been cooler on the Nats than I have been for most of the postseason. Today we see the biggest gap this October, with touts betting that I'm overvaluing the Nationals by about 10 percentage points.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1223011057&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Max Scherzer stepped into his private boat and waved goodbye and sailed back over a year and in and out of weeks and through a day and into the night of his very own room where he found his supper waiting for him—and it was still hot.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-25950605050757131712019-10-24T11:17:00.000-04:002019-10-24T11:17:21.285-04:00Projections 2019: The Nationals Have Won Two World Series Games against the Astros and OMG Wow<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgls3736iB0G7k0ZcsAJkoUUYECDrqGeH_tw_5ngQiYKk4rMADABs8_tClp7qIMoehUkKWBQbqfsTUBRDYbWwjFzMui6kLEyQDKW47kDy8qaK6kKstsmfYG4u__AX0JOOhCnjb8bDuEliE/s1600/progressive-10-23.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The citizens of Washington, DC, went 86 years between World Series game wins; they waited another 24 hours for their next one. The red hot Washington Nationals refuse to cower before <a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html">the best team in baseball</a> (or are they?). The Houston Astros will need to regain their footing on their opponent's home turf. The odds are against them.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZvjvjYtLTKJxxXY_g6HcAteiQiaALxOnShKScXHf3ag0ZQIP0hUVbPmtUSmnV7qfj7hLgJM-Qee3g5mnCorXcCGASgRlHKta0W8ftQTNGVErEOBVulPdMz06P59Nh5EvDY86FoRRZaks/s1600/ws-10-23.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 24 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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<a href="https://www.5dimes.eu/odds/Baseball" target="_blank">Bettors at 5Dimes</a> agree the Stros are in a tight spot, but they also continue to believe that my system is overrating the Nats' chances. Later on the smart money will understand how the numbers loved the Nationals, that they did dare much for their sake.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1223011057&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-79305268257593852662019-10-23T10:29:00.000-04:002019-10-23T10:29:19.364-04:00Projections 2019: Nats Steal Game, Lead from Astros<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6IpGUM2cGs_c5bEFWc1oM8UF0g942MoFly4tRGV0FMMFEpJV42gXkvM7rEUe0hB_Y2VQoeC2TL2W3iWujV4GOJiv962RfSI2k5niod5_CC4IN-X8QJyao3iFjlRzcsbSg5wur2cS8MyI/s1600/progressive-10-22.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Washington Nationals have won a World Series game. A Washington baseball club hadn't won a World Series game in 86 years. Now the Nats are 1-0 favorites over the Houston Astros, <a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html">the best team in baseball this year</a>.<br />
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The most likely discrete outcome remains an Astros victory, now in seven games rather than six. The Nats' best chance is a clinching game five that saves them from returning to Houston.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW8KQ1YWv8fiTacIIpN6Xeehyphenhyphen8bsvUoQPFwT3U8mO8NYiRZchtsdxRq8xTsl_1Z9OazZYbBP0rx4JZ-4l9ngFpe_zQK1rihEP8LaG-xTpFZKPKTdd7aZeoTHN05Yp5mi5dPo1jf1XzHPc/s1600/ws-10-22.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 23 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Bettors over at <a href="https://www.5dimes.eu/odds/Baseball/MLB-Futures/" target="_blank">5Dimes</a> think I'm a bit too optimistic about DC celebrating their first Fall Classic triumph since Calvin Coolidge's presidency, the big money staying in Texas for now.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1223011057&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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This postseason has proven to be one of excitement and sleeplessness. It will soon be over, and it will be a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-27201544682481646832019-10-21T12:15:00.000-04:002019-10-21T12:15:36.273-04:00Projections 2019: Astros Open as Big Favorites versus Party Crasher Nats<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_zVLMj7JxEXToi6FM07Ln1U6wUbT04h9fW1iOIZbDcOPDFDLs6eGOSms3eWS3PdPH7s6AEUxPVL1W04qw4qQAO8jYOzvH80FZfQUafTwI7EXrzqeXb8dIlzYNEFrRxrCTwdJDf3t-dPo/s1600/progressive-10-20.png" width="720px" /></div>
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With a late blast, the Houston Astros announced that they would wait no longer to claim the American League crown. They head to the World Series as heavy favorites against the first-timers from Washington.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQDIF5rv4XEMydyGwjG85Uf1w4zZ_W0cb5BL5t_h554lmpyOcAii5pxpE-4lE6rhowUJZVHMootMBnArx2W4M4DYWzfKhkoTn8RhCFdyycwAsNb7j1v57AqNOz2BPHCUXpgDtqd2hAd2k/s1600/ws-10-21.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 21 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=172969417&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The betting markets agree, selling the Nationals at an even steeper discount than my model would imply. It's not just about home field advantage: the Astros are far and away the best team in baseball, sporting a much better <a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html">RPScore</a> than the Nats. Of course, the same was true about the Dodgers.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="121px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1223011057&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Should the Nationals falter, O my brothers, remember sometimes thy little Anthony that was. Amen. And all that cal.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-70820505563031652532019-10-19T08:58:00.000-04:002019-10-19T08:58:55.688-04:00Projections 2019: Yanks Stay Alive, Still Face Long Odds<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbZLMsVbdIIElrS0lTerc6e8D0ighLpyi7uho5uowfGRDrs6Lqkw1hGP2hKpgxWo2Z2qET6jDWiKVZGvaCk-F_7Nfafn1UzOM6O-bnO3ruLXmU8Op8x5GZ-QpWW5q-LD1MtWn9nl7BKz4/s1600/progressive-10-18.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The New York Yankees decided in the bottom of the first inning that they would play another day. They spent the next eight innings ensuring their survival. The Houston Astros will host games six and seven with two chances of thwarting the rebellion. The Washington Nationals wait to meet the victors on their home turf.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsw2u-4hlwfXwRHrZPyDgRbesf2TYoHcOu6-S7VtTXSkXqcT6AfPpTaoPNNsq3yKZtOTrfG_f6d-_2Z9LApRuYhtVrTiKogfgYY06E5d3ObQGR2IiQWXs9da1CBJK4QNVneM93FrGuF5o/s1600/overview-10-18.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 16 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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By holding on in game five, the Yankees doubled their chances of winning the ALCS. The Astros are still very, very likely to stop them, 60% favorites to put the series away tonight in Houston.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQyoedLRaKwAWsQN-L_KYm6WeFcznMwGfTI8GctIfrR0Ddyp51fldNq3orIRICLvAPalSJNWNfeq0fZ0wVq12q_WAHEusGGujAu47aGev0oyER41b3W8Kz3naJLov4fvJ025X5XeYk-Co/s1600/alcs-10-18.png" width="720px" /></div>
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For DJ LeMahieu, the need to understand has passed, at least for the moment. All that is left is love and wonder.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-60195400176268880852019-10-18T11:06:00.000-04:002019-10-18T11:06:21.018-04:00Projections 2019: Stros on the Verge, Yanks on the Brink<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs8nheL9fEiuvobkwPQsiaweQz60rfx3WInUbfosQTzPqs8vT5nlTEzTwigN3mYsPq3_I15o2sqLP66RnUMDTD6mRiyFvHNnBhrZasM8ZgQHOCXJFlbbvDdzgZZwOPLaO1434p0AKTaes/s1600/overview-10-17.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Astros of Houston last night once again becalmed the Yankees of New York City with facile despatch. Houston are 92% to win their second National League title in three years. New York is in a tight spot. The Nationals of the Federal District await.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9zQCyG5oug_r4NT2KYG7bMEk9iaMyc5ZNndeANPmL20eYKWtpBsF1NmEnjbjoPVWD-y0p7_wXSEP-1iRPRq2vP-uxMuaIvfHqtPIOwq9ZtqQ8s4gnhRzhwK6ZvElXWnR4jjEe9XMZeJ8/s1600/progressive-10-17.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 16 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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If the Yankees are to complete the comeback, it'll be against long-odds, needing two wins in Houston. The Astros are slightly better than 50-50 to finish off the Bombers tonight at The Stadium.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNI2wlOXXLwYNNUPDqqCj9uLLuITahbKXtKGlMt5eHFkqZrp0vl8q0VlQytV-tBoYVohkz_Pr9wCKzFjBhPwFRXILYWWM-Y4ll0w7pYA6TWLqBHFIdaI-0KPb4DwyH2WTlH9NM7CmSZgU/s1600/alcs-10-17.png" width="720px" /></div>
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It's funny. Stats don’t ever tell anybody anything. If they do, they start missing everybody.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-20464051566577110052019-10-16T11:23:00.000-04:002019-10-16T11:23:23.493-04:00Projections 2019: DC Gonna Party Like It's 1933<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOO9FX4ohhJ3AQsPXNYQcgvkuyuOuIobJ9YXBJBfRapDbYcNH7sRs6AKPJGqifoEczp09ybecM8ahnT6zsgIYXreg5PZRGPLLFUav43V5HXdDmnF-4Xzm_dkpXkMaAfZgexsloWN1fVEA/s1600/progressive-10-15.png" width="720px" /></div>
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For the first time in the history of the franchise, dating back to their humble start in 1969 as the Montreal Expos, the Washington Nationals are going to the World Series. For the first time since 1933, a Washington, DC, baseball club is going to the World Series. For the first time in his fifteen year career, Ryan Zimmerman is going to the World Series.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii58LKwG5IRCvm_OnzZWH49kTquAbAvo8ekBtwGSH8DToUvUBt5c7LaUbghsN2f4Ktdmvo5eVZ_fjpyq3euy8KsdHrVAtiV46XZOf0uGbSHFGeJC0wRlYSSXv7pu0-FseLl1EYIxCiyD0/s1600/overview-10-15.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 16 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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In what was apparently another baseball game last night, the Houston Astros quieted the New York Yankees to take a two-games-to-one lead, forcing at least one more game back in the Lone Star State. Houston has a 77% chance of advancing to a second World Series in three seasons.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2YJYKLEHU1w8HJLdj2XUf5Vzn1TelbxpXTJgpPDxsPWDx6_RIE79PyYYNfR8J5rl6Xwps9fVtdwgqG-7aeGB5lACk1LkgKjMvdig9ryoPRBf33SaM01H9bcdCYWapsRJgfDzA0fHmLo8/s1600/alcs-10-15.png" width="720px" /></div>
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History can be a fickle muse, but for Nats fans this year she's been more than accommodating. It is not often that someone comes along who is a true friend and a good writer. Clio's been both.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCyFC-upWZnQQkdi8ZTqLsmZjK94_IQh6wW5GjcDtIvvyXsUFo0nQPm5YlIqs6tr8gV7qAsfiBHJ8QeEL3kKJ2DTjwfLBE_4JYZSq0c5EIEbQCfsNmEMkHJYMKbVuX01WismKGBLVwH5M/s1600/nlcs-10-15.png" width="720px" /></div>
JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-623921413187789652019-10-15T10:15:00.000-04:002019-10-15T10:15:38.770-04:00Projections 2019: Nats One Game Away from First World Series<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzpiOHYoAxgMLKAcykSi4DEUHzlfUlpDHEH1hAyn0ZBalBA8SBcmVdBbF3pRXv93DntCCRIZxMer91sN_RzxWYzR6ECxNpjV3JLr04-d40XF6YEdPBPm1BIT1GDtHpcShca0trJDlSCXo/s1600/progressive-10-14.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Fightin' Howie Kendricks are one game away from the World Series. Having defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in game three of the 2019 National League Championship Series, the Washington Nationals need one more win to claim their first ever pennant; their World Series probability, at 39%, is almost certainly the highest in the history of the franchise.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAPw_UT5gbHSsIaOcFa7lr-BYWC0NqG6-7Sh_v2b7gCVlyyT6uDkByxAr25JaUN3tPxQrh8XzjQpkxEz1JXLnAXyyCBJalAs0LKVUTpx8uAFwcqmh2DwnCx2evlR2pGGGXL5g8Rmd5NfQ/s1600/overview-10-14.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 15 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The Cardinals have a 24-to-1 chance of coming back in the series. The Nats have about a 60% chance of completing the sweep tonight at Nats park.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglFO6lpMCKoAWxG8FO3WOGVQwXYznIB2hR0WgfZj0-q5SF2AbAJJq5RYeP8pq2B74qze2N6g1YTyNzSmH_j1LwWpwtIoTyifMi5RRH1eo8-b3pbUdw5bYxBdJ6yx2uM4mVaBN244kBTjA/s1600/nlcs-10-14.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The ALCS resumes this evening in New York, with the New York Yankees once again underdogs to the Houston Astros (at least by my numbers). The most likely results involve an Astros win in five or six.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFim5z1EQ_fks0Jc91IaUTbzz27huGyNxuAVJq-zjzE5gLuj86ccoqVe2Su75HTg3vd8q1ms8qSCs3hDWeFJ5LU4tkXNfgdvHxgXP5gJOyFAOYIg-JBXFC4wonCASdZ7xf60pTCUV9Xzs/s1600/alcs-10-13.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Bronx Bombers are trying to claim their first pennant this decade, in the final year of the decade. The most successful North American sports franchise in history hasn't finished a decade without winning a league championship since the 1910's, a decade which ended with them purchasing the contract of one George Herman Ruth.<br />
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Ruth's legacy lives on in the mammoth proportions of Big Apple assassins like Aaron Judge. Yankee fans are expecting him to produce on the biggest stage of his career. They will be overjoyed should he deliver. They love Big Brother.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-57102182600655787782019-10-14T08:32:00.001-04:002019-10-14T08:32:25.351-04:00Projections 2019: Houston Bites Back, Regains Factorial Supremacy<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZIpSB6S5aDQ8HFuy_Fzl1nV-3vBkUZrRiI4yrnGLSw9kXdribDD8mrY_2Ug9irYsuiXurSN9LRw5-CzCNT6fN3yKqrBpD1FfyRoyKEJv0Zo5PZAUkgTXQtthlDP_1criqUxlP0j9_cqg/s1600/progressive-10-13.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Houston Astros evened up the series against the New York Yankees last night in walk-off fashion. They will head to the Big Apple as favorites once again. In the meantime, they will just live.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1gy2ScpZe6fnRhglgo4ekFSydVyC36m_1iWAgQCoE8Oe03KH0cBts_kXB5suxvdErSkaXXJoSNbJ5eT5DsgxAdA_FIgc8df9ssA_ygaZS_5rMnfFWXctdCqGcYnld0Bumuj4bA0cN1cE/s1600/overview-10-13.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 14 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFim5z1EQ_fks0Jc91IaUTbzz27huGyNxuAVJq-zjzE5gLuj86ccoqVe2Su75HTg3vd8q1ms8qSCs3hDWeFJ5LU4tkXNfgdvHxgXP5gJOyFAOYIg-JBXFC4wonCASdZ7xf60pTCUV9Xzs/s1600/alcs-10-13.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNqdNOatzpl4XJ4Yx3fKkUKFgEbR2aPtgrFokes40Yw7jFvgcOWd_0YVHl6L38-Muas6W177CbCxkcyxAls82l2kvgAvTk3dPpABv-r7KRWn8VUfzITq2e9hHnT1-YwGYazFnka-n_1sI/s1600/nlcs-10-12.png" width="720px" /></div>
JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-36556861876214225712019-10-13T09:03:00.000-04:002019-10-13T09:03:56.376-04:00Projections 2019: Yanks Smother Stros, Favored Nats Head Home up 2-0<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijNa8-BOxZwoC-6je16QK2-MRdaXR5FZ2idDgmhaocS_ut_cyAANIG3TD7wQpKSWtQkZ1ru_6YNXM26G-z_VSFjJWuCWViRZ-RlVIgu5qjZoddyhgesi4WKtusOmPyuKtiS-yD1oOw3XY/s1600/progressive-10-12.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Washington Nationals head back home up two games to none, while the New York Yankees steal one on the road. With the Tanakas, they were always on the most intimate terms. Gleyber, as well as Giancarlo, really loved them; and they were both ever sensible of the warmest gratitude towards the persons who, by bringing him into The Bronx, had been the means of uniting them.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgn3OMUrOeaUXjiMv3yh4VYLagMejFdRvldGKRhITpJt2OID0AxBpUkiQlMMZk_I5IpB7nVgJYHyb3jTBO2wIrcX5nNhLFrFD_NDsTtR8gzn4v9qndD1vZxt3-mmC6IP-feIuB3A52EaiM/s1600/overview-10-12.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 13 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNqdNOatzpl4XJ4Yx3fKkUKFgEbR2aPtgrFokes40Yw7jFvgcOWd_0YVHl6L38-Muas6W177CbCxkcyxAls82l2kvgAvTk3dPpABv-r7KRWn8VUfzITq2e9hHnT1-YwGYazFnka-n_1sI/s1600/nlcs-10-12.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibHVakHoA3OhXgc3_QdGE0TQyuzGk6_H7recLo1pa1gk-C-P8_FomepiB020jd1wC_kWyF5VYXvqwD1PrtzfiTloxA0DfAoRdp3ov25noyh5UoFRPbFn3QImKLVfEhvPjQAUzqsvuDU1I/s1600/alcs-10-12.png" width="720px" /></div>
JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-71236796996963645552019-10-12T14:43:00.000-04:002019-10-12T14:43:18.252-04:00Projections 2019: Nats One Closer<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeUhUiW2AzU6ON7zNSdP8_JAHN8pvBcyuW2z45i0THA6jGcUm7XNA0zHkBTNse0QbR5TPRxo9YDq_hXP33AJkuegB3ss7eVbaKCVm5xVMX2L1Jre_Ykv1Po8ufP5UmBXHgsaZpZ8QNGn4/s1600/progressive-10-11.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Just charts today, no commentary, for whatever our struggles and triumphs, however we may suffer them, all too soon they bleed into a wash, just like watery ink on paper.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnIuD27Ew4v7BOwQwY9GUaC_pB9mBUFNOHAvRH58eQEjf1KwuNN2GMSfqMNaAqoYa0-EXsbRKqSonNXK_WM-bmWcSt8AFPavcweuwdgyqELT625tm2A_k7HevfBaF9Dqkfb7OsOs8AVC8/s1600/overview-10-11.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 12 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTmPhM2k6300PKMINyKJuER-YQ_Qa4aiJGc0_J9X6FroD4JLhUniD3-pWkr19AoX7vzBN9ReYxDtqmkeEGhHF63Of2KhIYuSa3db2K59IpJrFJ5yVyE9aIyx8tp35s7JQFBB1uAHHsco0/s1600/nlcs-wsn-stl.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQrRxxmRXNd0C4GoZX4FG3OmcJSwa3Tc1ukya_su_TIf3RNSOM4t2u7gWghPlfxgulkvn78qkKTutbtJIB5luul-jKUUw8HlaGHDXL5cty5Me1qyXXvWUsZkdVotaX3IZhzHaF6f4G1A/s1600/alcs-10-10.png" width="720px" /></div>
JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-31965722149333144762019-10-11T14:28:00.002-04:002019-10-11T14:28:44.755-04:00Projections 2019: Astros Get Job Done, Remain Favorites<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVVlSqNWEWtLqp1Jtn_SOsdhsx3V8e8Rrn5pUZVW-vqK8EemFx8_DkhRL0_C-mB4967onBVzZfp67WoYkElkjkXUKKggWJvlspx30DUAvwmH-gj7npu1UYIlS84-Fv_nCLZ5TxdzcJbTI/s1600/progressive-10-10.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Tampa Bay Rays fought gallantly but couldn't manage to win a game in Houston. The favored Astros move onto the LCS, where they will have home field against the Yankees in four out of seven possible games. My numbers give the Stros an overwhelming 45% chance of winning the 2019 World Series.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyVzvMYSR1Vcxsmn_vukfTMTjHjAWABCWjDjA30SwrEQXSViMFxB8Ku7Ap_6ukjcU7hUSTAR6zSN7MUmGXB7o0SM6fWljzxr7A730Ad1Ph4kX0m8eX0P9B4aYPkoOUT1EO3h9AaVkEsQ8/s1600/overview-10-10.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 11 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="202px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=120538221&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The St. Louis Cardinals host the Washington Nationals in tonight's game one match-up. The Nats are modest 53-47% favorites, but the most commonly simulated outcome was a Cards win in seven. St. Louis' home field advantage is not quite enough to overcome Washington's superior <a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html" target="">RPScore</a>.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAogddcU7l8kuP2IrAkizmOPN6dHzT-KzlAGdTwcbZRfv3jd3AkVY5HzgyaJkcR3zpgD70J-rVppw2gSj4T1VM9qL7yR-LWXxgXevF0fCl2kz-9Goho5OBCPq9jXf05quwJnYtaS1R_ZM/s1600/nlcs-10-10.png" width="720px" /></div>
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My system likes the Astros <i>a lot</i> more than the New York Yankees: an RPScore 62 points better than New York's plus home field advantage makes Houston a substantial favorite in the American League Championship Series.<br />
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This leaves the Bombers with a 35% chance of winning their only pennant this decade. Should they fail to do so, it will be the first decade since the 1910s in which the New York American League club did not claim a league championship.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCQrRxxmRXNd0C4GoZX4FG3OmcJSwa3Tc1ukya_su_TIf3RNSOM4t2u7gWghPlfxgulkvn78qkKTutbtJIB5luul-jKUUw8HlaGHDXL5cty5Me1qyXXvWUsZkdVotaX3IZhzHaF6f4G1A/s1600/alcs-10-10.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<a href="https://www.5dimes.eu/odds/Baseball/MLB-Futures/" target="_blank">Bettors at 5Dimes</a> are not as bearish on the Yankees as I am (or as bullish on Houston). Despite their similar winning percentages, Houston's advantages in run prevention pay off in their RPScore rating relative to New York.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="175px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=38639927&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe><br /></div>
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At present, the most likely of 32 distinct World Series outcomes is an Astros win over Washington in six games. A Nats World Series Championship first pops up on the list at number seven, whereas the Yanks and Cards show up at the 11th and 13th spots, respectively.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="391px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1813084355&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The Nats/Expos franchise has never won a pennant. A Washington, D.C., ballclub hasn't reached the World Series since losing to the New York Giants in 1933. In that series, future Cooperstown resident Sam Rice stepped in for one final at bat at the age of 43. The old man was dreaming about the lions.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-90880128213933932432019-10-10T12:38:00.000-04:002019-10-10T12:38:54.436-04:00Postseason 2019: Bye Bye, Blue<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFFQ4r9OkfQg6Uh9196qeIxrhzwH-wlU6BwFi2WH6ScXLW20xe0S3yuSpIsTFhtmbH2ZnEwh7XngTpkJS71hQBRfSkA4wyUuLB-PoTnIPfXfb8vgB9zo9HsL6jJFLEwtz4PdL0kC4e_GY/s1600/progressive-10-09.png" width="720px" /></div>
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One got the job done the moment they set foot in the batter's box. The other took all the time they had. Neither was supposed to do what they did. Of the two favorites who hosted game five last night, both went home empty handed. The St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals will face off in the 2019 National League Championship Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves will head back home, dreaming of what might have been.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhIwgwri7yMF9H752dFSgQ74IdcVKmV0mvReFlG4RJslAE8yk0gKxAY2Wm15T3G4LGuf3tQ1sg0TkIn8oCsqR_AS6lpA3SXHWyaEPYG1UDEnjzg-kvcTGB9pkqkdxC5ROEJYPG0imNapX4/s1600/overview-10-09.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 09 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="310px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=867190369&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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By the middle of the first inning, <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2019-10-09&team=Braves&dh=0&season=2019" target="_blank">the bar below would have risen to 98%</a>. It was all over but the crying, and after the full nine it was the Atlanta Braves going "wee wee wee" all the way home. St. Louis will have home field advantage in the NLCS when they host the…<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXtFbkmnaTecF2yg0gXb3dZ8b4uf1WPu5NQCZ17ZSVOG1F7sn8Vjw0MM7tlNrmvSFJn1nBKfrJKLF1Z_kLT4ag78mivSWggTpVya4kxGu2Urvmx-uYVuJOJOOr4Qr_vS004pSUh6Uu2t8/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-09.png" width="720px" /></div>
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…Washington Nationals, who killed off the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers in dramatic fashion, winning a playoff series for the first time since they moved to the nation's capital.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMr2YdK3Y6IOPuchJbOg9ZjowH51VSSu_Zsu0TkceBgTqzVFMq3UT55Tq4ElWKR5tsALNizgmJmgVJrG0nEm4Iao0uUXTivU-FeS8pmQy7MEEUcjpKuxOIT7NDebyb6uMka-yZL6CRFOk/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-09.png" width="720px" /></div>
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There's still one more game five tonight, with the Houston Astros looking to put down the Tampa Bay Rays for good. Will it be a grind or a grand finale? My numbers give Houston about the same chances that they gave LA last night. Make of that what you will.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHZcrWNdAuHgN-WIRui7lJjrzvwSHP9c3T8HEpOabVtNRQtswIAaMj1v93s4RSSjyxamezUW6a5W0uHYf9YBeUfM3JiBPAlx_7UXJuHZWKeOQsKx8mAY9TwWoK97_tiPtU7Ot5u-6Mrok/s1600/alds-tbr-hou-10-08.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Three spots are filled. Two teams vie for the fourth. More elimination baseball is coming, and we are here.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-84494178421628916582019-10-09T10:25:00.000-04:002019-10-09T12:36:26.439-04:00Projections 2019: One Ray More #SorryNotSorry<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnsGp4lRTRHPQNSkwxjelZgwc4rmRvVE0h7zLatZRJpXav39_z4MScWumNg4dQjK31SpfbLHeJmqb6kC2YjiZOLhzMQRLD1MEtFaXYwhvdB-EPIR1mKogcQArLlhIDu0TI8pA-6B-SiJ4/s1600/progressive-10-08.png" width="720px" /></div>
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For the second game in a row, the Houston Astros failed to put away the stubborn Tampa Bay Rays. Fans of the cheapest team in baseball will be singing One Ray Mooorrree* as they attempt to complete the upset Thursday night in Houston.<br />
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*<i>They might not be doing this.</i><br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZhJcyO5sXxhJPdBcjaq69rKWk9ZP288B4sl4czVDC3-HQ4iwA5Ng63wk6rGyGwGKdL-VKoTsvBVIepVXXIY4chpgyQjuLE8ObLTUymt3pU41kJGrT8_r3-ybJLK8F1qVSHLgJv-gQ0Q0/s1600/overview-10-08.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 09 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="310px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=867190369&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Recent heroics notwithstanding, my system still picks the Astros as substantial favorites, expecting Houston to advance to the ALCS in front of their home crowd in game five. The winner will do their best to remind the New York Yankees what losing feels like.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHZcrWNdAuHgN-WIRui7lJjrzvwSHP9c3T8HEpOabVtNRQtswIAaMj1v93s4RSSjyxamezUW6a5W0uHYf9YBeUfM3JiBPAlx_7UXJuHZWKeOQsKx8mAY9TwWoK97_tiPtU7Ot5u-6Mrok/s1600/alds-tbr-hou-10-08.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Both NLDS contests resume this evening. The Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals will each attempt to upset their rivals on the road. My system makes the Atlanta Braves slight favorites and the Los Angeles Dodgers more substantial favorites to advance to the NLCS.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgAS-FlORngAwBvonTjssGVK9Fsll9VtdBNy4JwGXUNLx8H0NyWi1m_fiGGCinlVGYTH7JwxK9WPwcu9YuuSgt2uSpLV34FATk6-dSDSo_3a-ec-mhZUG5k2s-TNvwzdiEubCa4FQ59-8/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-07.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxSErowz7wM2rH6vOqSTEMgEo5C06v8VVjoReMtMoVumDZ-uCTIWFrMhG7Zk7E7GZ2ccYiAkvKGcxM66KnuraEVcB1Y1LRkNX5AyVD0qJxqWeSwdRXFmIvlJAsvinzg9sqCtgjkBlWGtQ/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-07.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Either way, two teams will be pouring champagne tonight and two teams will be heading back to their clubhouses to clean out their lockers for the winter. But wherever they go, and whatever happens to them on the way, in that enchanted place on the top of the mound a little boy and his bear will always be playing.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-28463676982280700862019-10-08T10:05:00.000-04:002019-10-08T12:52:59.982-04:00Projections 2019: Yankees First to Advance, Other Favorites Can't Avert Three Dog Night<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaXvj2AGSLVRDzPQHkR8TbfYof4NzgqzlnK-JHLptJTyDpSs9OnkR8UJqKSkIVYZKW7bh_BNirDi5ZuTBBX6DdMVrP3TC7i6ru64uq32cR-Ml80GjwG6NZ3c_fhnPWjjCDq9DSacu1CqI/s1600/progressive-10-07.png" width="718px" /></div>
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All four favorites had the chance to advance yesterday, but only one did: the New York Yankees are the first to move onto the league championship round after sweeping the Minnesota Twins. The Bombers will either host the Tampa Bay Rays or head to Houston to face the Astros, depending on the results of the other ALDS contest.<br />
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Hanging on were the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals; both faced elimination and trailed in what would have been their final games of 2019. Neither the Atlanta Braves nor the Los Angeles Dodgers could seal the deal, however, and both will try to finish off their foes at home on Wednesday.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjz4GqnoXU1fMfZY-3TYY2pDd2nE9Fr3gFmPAlTA8cL-XvMTTeMYGa3SMqt9hQZSRJpcJ5FgB_2QPDFwPLavSo07WrIhS96prMnT659Pz_xA1L2GMrE2vHp629feRfQ9GAm69Wz_RIEEZY/s1600/overview-10-07.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 08 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="310px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=867190369&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The Astros are still in the driver's seat, needing only one win to Tampa Bay's two to advance while enjoying <a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html">RPScore</a>'s favor as the best team in baseball this year. The Rays have about a five-to-one chance of coming all the way back and advancing to the ALCS. My numbers favor Houston to put an end to the Rays' run this evening.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPuyqVcd3RGWQXXmOxipbcHw4NVauAs67SSg4d4XvPOiPecWlgk8I4YV0ptOVhuS3wUmWJV0ME7KdHlnBw_uMIwK_VD-QIwRfaHFoVfJRhSrqFOKZRwJxJ0zIP8jer1uLHrQqMvA2rBoA/s1600/alds-tbr-hou-10-07.png" width="720px" /></div>
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In a wild, back-and-forth, extra-innings contest, the Cards told elimination "not today" and forced a game five back in Atlanta. I have the Braves as modest favorites to take the series.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgAS-FlORngAwBvonTjssGVK9Fsll9VtdBNy4JwGXUNLx8H0NyWi1m_fiGGCinlVGYTH7JwxK9WPwcu9YuuSgt2uSpLV34FATk6-dSDSo_3a-ec-mhZUG5k2s-TNvwzdiEubCa4FQ59-8/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-07.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Nationals refuse to bow down to the powerhouse that is the 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers, but I still expect the Dodgers to take the series on Wednesday in LA.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxSErowz7wM2rH6vOqSTEMgEo5C06v8VVjoReMtMoVumDZ-uCTIWFrMhG7Zk7E7GZ2ccYiAkvKGcxM66KnuraEVcB1Y1LRkNX5AyVD0qJxqWeSwdRXFmIvlJAsvinzg9sqCtgjkBlWGtQ/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-07.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Yankees became the first team to sweep a triple-digit winner in the first round since the Yankees themselves were swept in 1980. They will be underdogs to the Astros should everything fall the way the numbers expect them to, but would be favorites should the Rays flip the script.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMJAcXWdTwadNf6weaFf2p5z9qgd5aD2DU_MPFVb90wLNeAdtASl-bpA5V_I2ESssnn8l8sDPX4TvoLzkDvMiMdHqNLRW0MEkH-P3EdPZ6YsI6ymLHp5FQGItc1Z_-JOPAs50aaVUj1zA/s1600/alds-min-nyy-10-07.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Will the Nats or Rays complete the feat and upset their rivals? Very few heavily disfavored underdogs can claim to have survived so long in the LDS, and none against teams so dominant as the 2019 versions of the Dodgers and the Astros.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-10476078984264274792019-10-07T12:19:00.000-04:002019-10-07T12:19:11.557-04:00Projections 2019: NL Favorite Dodgers and Braves Resume Leads<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSLAnI0DRsOFJ3hPx32MvbeQqF9slhqMj6R44rAze4nHzjSzaMFC_pDOvXijsj0sdubvAyjwzw43E3YZ8abnagJhdSmxCfy79eO_dL8Zpn2x_8WCHBbsd0XZo-OFkh_npIMvgFGXLQ6g8/s1600/progressive-10-06.png" width="718px" /></div>
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With the Atlanta Braves stunning the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers overwhelming the Washington Nationals, all four favorites at the beginning of the LDS round of play are now one win away from advancing.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhW-bciEmGuQsdSfgSbtiMG95Sjgjh2s85ZyLxqiwylbpRIEzdBRZa2ymdvJ9f4dXLivQalabXvcqwvtP_HjKFoJxkYo4vlXjJBAdLvOiaIIzd_o8chkSV3T7L0_6o2S_GEhSROvoWLrFY/s1600/overview-10-06.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 07 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<div>
<iframe frameborder="0" height="310px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=867190369&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The Cards only have a three-in-one shot of coming back against the Braves, needing both a win at home and a win in Atlanta to complete the feat.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic4d3Rnf_gctG0Yrb0ZIXSf_QYWbOxCWbNP2I7FlZ8j1xPiEpZOV2LzPo4uCs9MfdwUkP5TN0H-hRjkzweuREO3PmK0HoLu-TD4hCdTb-Go5Uofq973cIf5-p6rMxKfooOaJ6tp3wrsDE/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-06.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Nats face even worse odds against a much stronger LA squad.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjEwyc52r24sl9JZSTjg9Y2Wb-ew_OiQ1y_hQnEHLGNiFQrBvRz9lnLeR06CvI3MMTSiZuWDvWQqJKtxQ4mESL2QReJrGclVCT-Eu4uihd3dnG1Tt1I4fbZD1FCYjhlLhla1ms-Yz-u7DY/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-06.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Meanwhile over in the Junior Circuit, the New York Yankees will try to complete the sweep against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. My numbers give the Twinkies only eight-to-one odds at coming back against the Bronx Bombers.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZez4X5cglQwX-bOM1IAlsDOoTufovuQo7frv6vvFIpIBP1It2tQ6aSGjb6MvBVCtkv35h4h4FdAlUwxpi5uKDHw216x_dw8qyWQH7FmGU86etgkgG4gv8zm4lsQMF4JVe1Jo5t2wNf9E/s1600/alds-min-nyy-10-05.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Likewise, the picture is looking grim for the Tampa Bay Rays, 14-to-1 long shots against the MLB-best Houston Astros. I give the Stros better-than-even to finish off the sweep this afternoon in St. Petersburg.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGHzf0HcGJSKaA55zz-kGA-PFeRvClOL6QFXtZ2iLRI9nSh4v4TqzsjJ_8_UfpW366Z3EhHuIvHJr6opw5cD1oe6iHG4K9L6CjpttAj29CMcMs0iUDqDLrDD3uQMOUep1ZYcOoIHzWLBY/s1600/alds-tbr-hou-10-05.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The entirety of 2019 division series play could be over after tonight, so enjoy those dingers while they fly, watching those men and beasts, beasts and men, impossibly trying to discern which is which.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-27971332007278875222019-10-06T16:34:00.000-04:002019-10-06T16:36:42.479-04:00Projections 2019: Astros Commanding Favorites<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidKtv4NJ2BZ8oN6TVi_ervyyUBsEe0BynKFETs7COgMQC6QB6tiEkmdGhsXmonrk55FYFnQfnrA42H3xU1xCV4w8sF9kKJVmrkwXZs_WRaTJU5OCKmv_AaVAdPV192eXsCUQliZ9yPGug/s1600/progressive-10-05.png" width="718px" /></div>
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No commentary today; just charts, by a magical thread, as they step into the room.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRogDhrJhp98L7Iqf9zqFeEnaM2Ff_Z7SRZraNgnp22t3riTMtMWGPN_udbEHHMVLQrtx-h4iMuhKP1vBJhtbj-3fVJNzWyhqVbauVtVMOJFN7G4dPMiQ-er8-kiUpQPEvMW5wESX6ppM/s1600/overview-10-05.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 06 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="310px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=867190369&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZez4X5cglQwX-bOM1IAlsDOoTufovuQo7frv6vvFIpIBP1It2tQ6aSGjb6MvBVCtkv35h4h4FdAlUwxpi5uKDHw216x_dw8qyWQH7FmGU86etgkgG4gv8zm4lsQMF4JVe1Jo5t2wNf9E/s1600/alds-min-nyy-10-05.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGHzf0HcGJSKaA55zz-kGA-PFeRvClOL6QFXtZ2iLRI9nSh4v4TqzsjJ_8_UfpW366Z3EhHuIvHJr6opw5cD1oe6iHG4K9L6CjpttAj29CMcMs0iUDqDLrDD3uQMOUep1ZYcOoIHzWLBY/s1600/alds-tbr-hou-10-05.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVIqvswBk-duRKlOsqaVfWOoIhDvyxlnP0LXj_N1MvByfey7lCSEefaz-Il2oIICbuqfhb3su-7B6LzX2JWSSg30MeBLK1HQRFrsSqoGVWbMjwzFoeNNkVia7bfpvlvKYNKTnfVHJxlyQ/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-04.png" width="720px" /></div>
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj91iik0wibl61zzMpl-Mlz7VDTJQ_YGMHCkj2zSe5Kdc9JgNdp8CEV2sqk04M3MMUf-2egwlej_9CNhNFJLqwkX_jlKu5u428hrb32CUaoQEGQ8hgXkKWR5dkjbqdz9H5BqPmoM1yW3JM/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-04.png" width="720px" /></div>
JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-19776053733682426452019-10-05T12:06:00.001-04:002019-10-05T12:06:47.860-04:00Projections 2019: It's Splitsville for Nats and Braves as Yanks, Stros Go 1-0<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjb-sGH0Me-5JeDEG-kQqaYala9TEQ4E_5qZPNy9rfqdO0j_ik-uwDlLO58AL1CNtn9dd7vlz1g7EC-a4EcNcfjYPzwZL_QePC3wTL6ujULmYskrSpazL7yckknsOLARHvRZG2u5za3QZI/s1600/progressive-10-04.png" width="718px" /></div>
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The home teams went 3-1 last night with only Stephen Strasburg's curve bucking the trend. The Houston Astros are once again the favorites to win it all in 2019.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="430px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9XITz-3XYifvnEaL2k9c4bOgau6IlyN60vEdOSJ1QZFqfrAzWj8TsEvLlWgpcGiFKgsQWFX88cKZ6v1Q5vKaO3jNslQ3aAQhpWPbKiEeYrulhoM1paJ9mxsyindjrYm_cBjK20dQYlJo/s1600/overview-10-04.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 05 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="310px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=867190369&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The Tampa Bay Rays are in a real tight spot now, 4 to 1 underdogs in the ALDS. The most likely outcome is now a Houston sweep.<br />
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<img border="0" height="430px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhogERmfP3Y2KdLC0TjhTomRt98d0Q45kUEsD-2TpeMo-3tMYGhh7GBqvYsqlONw-OQobu4VHG41yEJyv-I_X08rFWqy_kPELnk6VxalLxtkmep15yEDK4gS2KSUQoWqk5blZNmcCXOelw/s1600/alds-tbr-hou-10-04.png" width="718px" /></div>
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In game two, the Atlanta Braves evened the score at home, splitting the series before they head to St. Louis. The Cardinals are very, very modest favorites in the remainder of the NLDS.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVIqvswBk-duRKlOsqaVfWOoIhDvyxlnP0LXj_N1MvByfey7lCSEefaz-Il2oIICbuqfhb3su-7B6LzX2JWSSg30MeBLK1HQRFrsSqoGVWbMjwzFoeNNkVia7bfpvlvKYNKTnfVHJxlyQ/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-04.png" width="720px" /></div>
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In a contest that took approximately 13 hours and 78 minutes, the New York Yankees thumped the Minnesota Twins in game one. The most likely outcome is a Bombers win in three.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0szmiDuSAUBreyE34FDZJcBH3vFpHyzL-yW8zWf7Zi-akrl4CiRjSwVvCex3tT_DkPNFs2mLa1qGX6jv0dGeJp7-uTcXEXXwlVmkQBCMeawgGbgKRO3uW7f5YcK8S_j7hsWptTw00UeM/s1600/alds-min-nyy-10-04.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Strasburg's heroic efforts saved the Washington Nationals from going down 2-0 to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They head back home with a one-in-five chance of finishing off LA before having to return to Chavez Ravine.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj91iik0wibl61zzMpl-Mlz7VDTJQ_YGMHCkj2zSe5Kdc9JgNdp8CEV2sqk04M3MMUf-2egwlej_9CNhNFJLqwkX_jlKu5u428hrb32CUaoQEGQ8hgXkKWR5dkjbqdz9H5BqPmoM1yW3JM/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-04.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The AL is back in action this evening. Can the Twins and Rays even the score? My numbers say probably not, but it's one game, so I'll be here all night, and I'll be here when you wake up in the morning.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-57045249857621004262019-10-04T11:08:00.001-04:002019-10-04T11:08:43.687-04:00Projections 2019: Dodgers Favored, ALDS Begins<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLN4Vw8ENo7i1kmOmvcHWTD659OsLacsEWuJBSCqwqtypNuyhxhq6MKRmr49eAXg7KEnH8DXUZUxr27SHQ0o_JiPsbB6OLI1u_V0JAGbdq7HvyFQm7V3T8arSoMduAvhGthJLuWEF5MXo/s1600/progressive-10-03.png" width="720px" /></div>
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With their drubbing of the Washington Nationals' eternally beleaguered bullpen, the Los Angeles Dodgers made themselves the favorites to win the 2019 World Series. In yesterday's other contest, the St. Louis Cardinals flipped the script, taking one from the Atlanta Braves in the City of Trees.<br />
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<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZXoFapv1ar11Y2cDAhNub2Z4P5bFsOc_zWx_06mFm4vIkMQ6wL44NxXvRCuL74hQh_yJPhQsO_IE2iHPYVcob-kIE-CDT-VI3eweHzEHfMCGhRASHliyD_a6E0b0zeU9FGc5P58KkZiE/s1600/overview-10-03.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 04 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="310px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=867190369&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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The Cards are now the favorite to advance to the NLCS, most likely clinching in St. Louis against Atlanta in game four. The Braves' best bet is to force a deciding game five at home.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKv_20YONWTEyK5aC-PtBiTkMl8Gy1csHkJrpfZK-xUlYOPkoid03T-FLfihG_BMIAaHoh-Y49fCDHtUGtkW3MYdgiphRUe-r7adsKU3Von_GYo8o9xCyn-7D2qyUEdS6THKIVvzIW9Hs/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-03.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Nats put themselves in a heck of a tight spot with their loss to the overpowering Dodgers. Unless they get their act together, LA will turn Natstown into Sweepsville in game three.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFmOsny6QxeWRBb8HmIYvYIQMhRp1M7l8UvSD_XtpMuWYwAzdkJdKUXGW0Pq6TclNEvhVx1iYnzLOQ4KP_GfjBCbtIEYcvIp6RZi8Wvn6BxWhlvuXUh9d9jQNRYemzQp8VaYM-fKY7-0I/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-03.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The New York Yankees might have a history of embarrassing the Minnesota Twins in October, but my model doesn't care, calculating that these squads are more evenly matched than in the past. The Bombers are still the favorites, modestly, 55-45 over the Twinkies.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhB0N5Vq3o5z61HdjNSty7K8GKBogiJDz442Obr__5z14K9a_5hhjtBw1dyvWxpnjlX0dCAYGfc1Dd5e5WzhwVpZ8Lhe2LKHxAw_lNToOizwMbRvfoIymXfte-yIIhHZv7hqIs2b7DhIZE/s1600/alds-min-nyy-10-03.png" width="720px" /></div>
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The Tampa Bay Rays' victory in the AL Wild Card won them the right to walk headlong into the buzz saw that is the Houston Astros' roster. I have the 'Stros as dominant 2-1 favorites over Tampa Bay.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTwSk8wtiJ3UhE50bRMu3CXT1r4ilGZ0I8aSntLje22titCkQxMGvnyCjFo25CZqiTA97DfPXOnMVj_agMUbquajkoxne8Ah_JoAzmQ2ZVhoEHpQdLwcVv0s3sT3NeYUrqyEeWkOe1RiY/s1600/alds-tbr-hou-10-03.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Check back tomorrow after the first full slate of postseason match-ups this October. After all, as the Braves might say, tomorrow is another day.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-43086717391646906762019-10-03T11:07:00.000-04:002019-10-03T11:07:02.378-04:00Projections 2019: Astros and Dodgers Big Favorites as Division Series Commence<div style="font-size: 11pt; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://frinkiac.com/"><img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyuaodH3kdxB-0GnkqGhLB57xKrJfmNLEVGMI_XFXiWuf-rzMtEgeoXuwlQD6YJOuT6NBaaXc0nq6gCd7jQNuosMfx-_4EPOEw_9yfUoTGAOU7uSIfGYnmmWzHos1kBD63RB3UYj2AshU/s1600/lockoftheweek.png" width="720px" /></a><i><span style="color: #666666;">JD's Lock of the Week</span></i></div>
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After one Wild Card and one Mild Card, the field of eight is set. The Tampa Bay Rays will take to the road to try to upset the top-seeded Houston Astros after halting the Oakland Athletics' 2019 surge. In this evening's performances, the Atlanta Braves will host the St. Louis Cardinals and the NL-best Los Angeles Dodgers will hold the fort against the Washington Nationals. Good times will be had by some.<br />
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With their win, the Rays boost their World Series chances to 7%, tied with the Minnesota Twins as the least likely AL victor and surpassing only the Cardinals' chances to win it all.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTsayL60djIu-j6r4M0yrfvjlLiTgj29QuwD3xsYSm9iSzrmqC21cfuCPfZcdUy4jn9jsxdzdRY2nPZiV5YEDSpED5HjVqBDQBZuueVwrrgBoOF_j3pVNrNBARRduFWG20GyAJ7HkFNzw/s1600/overview-10-02.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 02 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="364px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1676115368&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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<a href="https://www.rationalpastime.com/p/power-score.html">RPScore's measure</a> of the Cardinals and Braves has them as relatively even teams. Personally, I think my system has been underrating Atlanta all year, but my simulator has St. Louis as only slight underdogs owing mostly to Atlanta's home field advantage in games one, two and (potentially) five.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-UYQtrWNEa1b1nW9XYmZd_PT8GXMfk9ZVxsbBYmB_YuFHF-zZEq2pR9Lk-OhkahSMAVU5jFoEps1EvfBCHr5bs1QAmi5X68wE2RyivxWWNBXcXHiJr2Wmz3rjbhaamf8cG7Iib2IiG_E/s1600/nlds-stl-atl-10-02.png" width="720px" /></div>
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My system takes no account of historical NLDS fecklessness or my own gut feeling that the Nationals are weaker than RPScore estimates. Nevertheless, my numbers have the Nationals as nearly 2-to-1 underdogs against Los Angeles, being the weaker squad and having to win at least one at Dodger Stadium to advance.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvTdgLw7ypFeNPrzTpLNB-bymVXg1ao20fNehN4ZjWlHAFEyUcitb7kJtLgraVXyonpq-SheD5wIlazRhnjKvNpl8NnMuIK2_kEQfEmLs8brjYT6XuvQxp49OT4j_og8E1xR4UA56wN_0/s1600/nlds-wsn-lad-10-02.png" width="720px" /></div>
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Much as at the start of the previous round, my numbers mostly agree with the positions of bettors, this time at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball/mlb/matchups" target="_blank">Pinnacle</a>. The big discrepancy involves the Yankees, which RPScore has been bearish on all year (at least relative to Houston and Los Angeles). My heart and my gut both have more faith in the Bombers, but my spreadsheets and my code heavily favor the Astros and Los Angeles, both of whom are likely to be New York's biggest obstacle to a record 28th title.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="283px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=922369036&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe><br /></div>
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Due to the much greater spread of performance in baseball this year, with four 100-win teams and four 100-loss teams, the most likely World Series outcomes are dominated by just a few squads. In descending order of likelihood, the top 25 results, comprising the top 46.3% of likely outcomes, all feature either the Astros or Dodgers. The top 30/51.6% feature either those two teams, the Yankees or the Nationals. It's a top-heavy field for sure, but that doesn't mean we can't still have some surprises.<br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="499px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=493262059&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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Stay tuned as we get deeper and deeper into October, the hopes and fears of each fanbase surging with every pitch and every swing, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6390344551405991229.post-90074203900663884452019-10-02T09:32:00.000-04:002019-10-02T09:32:17.862-04:00Projections 2019: Nats Boost Odds with Wild Wild Card WinIn a thrilling demonstration of our national pastime, the Washington Nationals won their first winner-take-all postseason contest at Nationals Park last night in the nation's capital with their come-from-behind victory over the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2019 National League Wild Card Game. National.<br />
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<img border="0" height="432px" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmESpkZCj7MCF6mNmMgECXmFFjSwlIxqJQr5hi5YidsN_FcrbTrRKj6qZgBA-67EbxTmyPpg-zo33IJ8biY3b7IsVj6UW41BADlY7hPWDE3ES-D08Bz1Btr5yv4b1-S-ys135raJxQAz8/s1600/overview-10-01.png" width="720px" /><i><span style="color: #666666;">Projections as of 02 October 2019</span></i></div>
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="364px" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQzjyz-q1olWfptWQjmiSLeySnYmKHcOs6F9roO51yJlOPeuadTzD1hXZdQ3uAQ1zq3vPLnEPtZAEA4/pubhtml?gid=1676115368&single=true&widget=false&chrome=false" width="720px"></iframe></div>
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With the win, the Nats boost their World Series chances from 5% to 8%. They face a tough road ahead against the NL top seed Los Angeles Dodgers, against whom they'll need to take at least one game in LA.<br />
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Oakland and Tampa Bay face off tonight in a bid to determine who will face the Houston juggernaut. Stay tuned to track each team's progress through the 2019 postseason.JD Mathewsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01013387350010957440noreply@blogger.com0