30 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/29: Dodgers, Astros Poised for Huge Seasons

The top three RPScore teams are still the same, but the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are pulling away from the pack, both currently projecting to post 105 wins this season.

Win Projections with 80% Error Bars

Top Teams through 6/29:
  1. Houston Astros (.628)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.623)
  3. New York Yankees (.579)

23 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/22: Houston Astros at High Water Mark

The Houston Astros are playing at the top of their game, posting their highest RPScore of the season thanks to yesterday's road victory over the Oakland Athletics. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers are ascendant and the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals are hanging on, despite their skids.

RPScores Trend for Select Teams (Season to Date)

Top Teams through 6/22:
  1. Houston Astros (.622)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.610)
  3. New York Yankees (.585)

16 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/15: Astros, Yankees Battle for Top Spot

The New York Yankees are charging hard for that top RPScore spot, but the Houston Astros remain kings of the hill for now.

RPScores by select teams (season to date)

Top Teams through 6/15:
  1. Houston Astros (.604)
  2. New York Yankees (.602)
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers (.594)

09 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/8: Astros, Nats on Pace to Win 100+

The top three teams remain the same on the RPScore leaderboard, with the Washington Nationals threatening to break into the club. Meanwhile, my projections continue to expect the Houston Astros to win well over 100 games.

Win Projections with 80% Prediction Intervals

Top Teams through 6/8:
  1. Houston Astros (.619)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.591)
  3. New York Yankees (.589)

Projected AL Seeds:
  1. Houston (106 - 56)
  2. New York (95 - 67)
  3. Cleveland Indians (87 - 75)
  4. Boston Red Sox (86 - 76; 1st WC)
  5. Seattle Mariners or Tampa Bay Rays (82 - 80; 2nd WC)

Projected NL Seeds:
  1. Washington Nationals (100 - 62)
  2. Los Angeles (98 - 64)
  3. Chicago Cubs (86 - 76)
  4. Colorado Rockies (93 - 69; WC)
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks (90 - 72; WC)
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (81 - 81; 1st out)

Comments and Observations:
  • Edinson Volquez broke 2017's no-hitter drought last Saturday, June 3rd, blanking the Arizona Diamondbacks. There were seven one-hitters this season prior to that game.
  • The no-no contributed to the weakest offensive outing of the season by any squad, with the D'backs only posting 0.01 Base Runs.
  • Speaking of Volquez's feat, it prompted Craig Edwards at FanGraphs to wonder if the no-hitter is starting to lose its cachet (thanks to its frequency in recent years).
  • That same day, the Dodgers set the season's new high water mark with seven stolen bases against the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • On Wednesday, June 7, the New York Mets and the Texas Rangers played the closest game of the season, tying at 3.54 Base Runs apiece (in actual runs, the Mets edged the Rangers 4-3).
  • The Astros and Nationals are still projected to win their respective divisions by 20+ games, while the Cubs have broken back into the playoff picture thanks to last weekend's sweep of St. Louis.
  • The Nats have surpassed the Dodgers in the NL projections, which now expect Washington to win 100 games as well as home field advantage through the NLCS.
  • Those same Nats have yet to break into the top three, but they're making a run for it, having improved their RPScore by 11 points in the last week and taking two of three from LA in LA.
  • The Giants finally scored double digit runs in a single game! They beat the Philadelphia Phillies 10-0 last Friday, becoming the last team to score 10+ in a game this season.
  • In fact, six teams scored 10+ that night, which was a season high.
  • Six teams scored 10+ again on Tuesday.
  • The Diamondbacks still have yet to allow 10 runs in one contest in 2017.
  • The home team is playing .562 ball through June 8, with a run differential of +267.

Good Links:

02 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/1: Houston Astros Best in Baseball

The top three remain the same but the order has changed. As of this morning, RPScore says that the Houston Astros are the best team in baseball. Projections based on RPScore expect the 'Stros to win 103 games (give or take just under ten wins). The Los Angeles Dodgers are the only other squad that should top 100.

Win Projections with 80% Prediction Intervals

Top Teams through 6/1:
  1. Houston Astros (.608)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.602)
  3. New York Yankees (.580)

Projected AL Seeds:*
  1. Houston (103 - 59)
  2. New York (94 - 68)
  3. Cleveland Indians (90 - 72)
  4. Boston Red Sox (87 - 75; WC)
  5. Tampa Bay Rays (85 - 77; WC)
  6. Baltimore Orioles (81 - 81; 1st out)

Projected NL Seeds:*
  1. Los Angeles (100 - 62)
  2. Washington Nationals (97 - 65)
  3. St. Louis Cardinals (86 - 76)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks (91 - 71; WC)
  5. Colorado Rockies (90 - 72; WC)
  6. Chicago Cubs (84 - 78; 1st out)
*80% prediction interval of +/- 9.7 wins

Comments and Observations:
  • In the most recent simulation, the miracle, curse-breaking, championship-reigning Cubs miss the playoffs by two games.
  • In last week's simulation, I had the Minnesota Twins landing the second wild card in the AL. Today I have them five games out.
  • The Astros and Washington Nationals are both poised to wipe the floor with their respective divisions. The median outcomes in this week's simulation have Houston winning the AL Central by 25 games and the Nats winning the NL East by 22.
  • The Astros have also been super lucky, but not as lucky as the Colorado Rockies whose win rate is outpacing their RPScore by 99 points.
  • The San Francisco Giants remain the only team not to score more than eight runs this season, while the Diamondbacks remain the only team not to allow double digits.
  • The Nationals and Yankees lead all of baseball in runs per game (5.5) without leading in total runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, homers, total bases, walks or stolen bases.
  • Last Saturday's slate of games, which included a doubleheader, was the most offensively moribund of 2017, producing only 6.1 runs per game.
  • Looking at it another way, that Saturday, May 27, was a great day for pitching with five shutouts tying the high water mark set on... Friday, May 26.
  • The home team is winning at a .550 clip this year with a run differential of +185.

Good Links: