02 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/1: Houston Astros Best in Baseball

The top three remain the same but the order has changed. As of this morning, RPScore says that the Houston Astros are the best team in baseball. Projections based on RPScore expect the 'Stros to win 103 games (give or take just under ten wins). The Los Angeles Dodgers are the only other squad that should top 100.

Win Projections with 80% Prediction Intervals

Top Teams through 6/1:
  1. Houston Astros (.608)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.602)
  3. New York Yankees (.580)

Projected AL Seeds:*
  1. Houston (103 - 59)
  2. New York (94 - 68)
  3. Cleveland Indians (90 - 72)
  4. Boston Red Sox (87 - 75; WC)
  5. Tampa Bay Rays (85 - 77; WC)
  6. Baltimore Orioles (81 - 81; 1st out)

Projected NL Seeds:*
  1. Los Angeles (100 - 62)
  2. Washington Nationals (97 - 65)
  3. St. Louis Cardinals (86 - 76)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks (91 - 71; WC)
  5. Colorado Rockies (90 - 72; WC)
  6. Chicago Cubs (84 - 78; 1st out)
*80% prediction interval of +/- 9.7 wins

Comments and Observations:
  • In the most recent simulation, the miracle, curse-breaking, championship-reigning Cubs miss the playoffs by two games.
  • In last week's simulation, I had the Minnesota Twins landing the second wild card in the AL. Today I have them five games out.
  • The Astros and Washington Nationals are both poised to wipe the floor with their respective divisions. The median outcomes in this week's simulation have Houston winning the AL Central by 25 games and the Nats winning the NL East by 22.
  • The Astros have also been super lucky, but not as lucky as the Colorado Rockies whose win rate is outpacing their RPScore by 99 points.
  • The San Francisco Giants remain the only team not to score more than eight runs this season, while the Diamondbacks remain the only team not to allow double digits.
  • The Nationals and Yankees lead all of baseball in runs per game (5.5) without leading in total runs scored, hits, doubles, triples, homers, total bases, walks or stolen bases.
  • Last Saturday's slate of games, which included a doubleheader, was the most offensively moribund of 2017, producing only 6.1 runs per game.
  • Looking at it another way, that Saturday, May 27, was a great day for pitching with five shutouts tying the high water mark set on... Friday, May 26.
  • The home team is winning at a .550 clip this year with a run differential of +185.

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