26 May 2017

Ratings and Projections through 5/25: Dodgers #1, Astros Project to Win 99

The Los Angeles Dodgers are tops in RPScore, the Houston Astros are poised to finish with 99 wins and parity is the watchword of the American League so far this season.

Win Projections with 80% Prediction Intervals

Top-rated Teams through May 25:
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Houston Astros
  3. New York Yankees
Projected AL Top Seeds:
  1. Houston (99 - 63)
  2. New York (94 - 68)
  3. Cleveland Indians (90 - 72)
  4. Boston Red Sox (87 - 75; WC)
  5. Minnesota Twins (84 - 78; WC)
  6. Tampa Bay Rays (83 - 79; 1st Team Out)
Projected NL Top Seeds:
  1. Los Angeles (97 - 65)
  2. Washington Nationals (95 - 67)
  3. Chicago Cubs (90 - 72)
  4. Colorado Rockies (92 - 70; WC)
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks (90 - 72; WC)
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (87 - 75; 1st Team Out)
Comments and Observations:
  • Since my last post, the Chicago White Sox threw a one-hitter against the Seattle Mariners on May 19 and Houston one-hit the Detroit Tigers on May 22. Those were the sixth and seventh one-hitters of the season.
  • On May 24, the Cincinnati Reds caught the Indians stealing three times, the second time this season that happened (the Red Sox caught the Milwaukee Brewers stealing three times on May 9).
  • The Nationals continue to struggle with their pen and with subpar opponents, but my model still expects them to win the moribund NL East by 22 games.
  • The Indians should win their division by six games, the narrowest projected margin in the AL.
  • And yet, there are 14 American League teams within ten games or fewer of a playoff spot.
  • There are only six NL teams expected to finish that well.
  • The Rockies are playing well and winning better; Colorado's .633 win rate is 108 points above where RPScore expects them to be.
  • The Miami Marlins are almost as unlucky as the Rox are lucky; the Fish aren't great this year, but they're about 97 points better than the .356 win rate they've actually posted.
  • The Diamondbacks have scored the third-most runs in baseball this year even though their modal production is only one run.
  • The San Francisco Giants still haven't scored 9+ this season; the D'Backs still haven't allowed double digits.
  • The home squad has won 54.9% of games this season, with a run differential of +133.

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