09 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/8: Astros, Nats on Pace to Win 100+

The top three teams remain the same on the RPScore leaderboard, with the Washington Nationals threatening to break into the club. Meanwhile, my projections continue to expect the Houston Astros to win well over 100 games.

Win Projections with 80% Prediction Intervals

Top Teams through 6/8:
  1. Houston Astros (.619)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.591)
  3. New York Yankees (.589)

Projected AL Seeds:
  1. Houston (106 - 56)
  2. New York (95 - 67)
  3. Cleveland Indians (87 - 75)
  4. Boston Red Sox (86 - 76; 1st WC)
  5. Seattle Mariners or Tampa Bay Rays (82 - 80; 2nd WC)

Projected NL Seeds:
  1. Washington Nationals (100 - 62)
  2. Los Angeles (98 - 64)
  3. Chicago Cubs (86 - 76)
  4. Colorado Rockies (93 - 69; WC)
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks (90 - 72; WC)
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (81 - 81; 1st out)

Comments and Observations:
  • Edinson Volquez broke 2017's no-hitter drought last Saturday, June 3rd, blanking the Arizona Diamondbacks. There were seven one-hitters this season prior to that game.
  • The no-no contributed to the weakest offensive outing of the season by any squad, with the D'backs only posting 0.01 Base Runs.
  • Speaking of Volquez's feat, it prompted Craig Edwards at FanGraphs to wonder if the no-hitter is starting to lose its cachet (thanks to its frequency in recent years).
  • That same day, the Dodgers set the season's new high water mark with seven stolen bases against the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • On Wednesday, June 7, the New York Mets and the Texas Rangers played the closest game of the season, tying at 3.54 Base Runs apiece (in actual runs, the Mets edged the Rangers 4-3).
  • The Astros and Nationals are still projected to win their respective divisions by 20+ games, while the Cubs have broken back into the playoff picture thanks to last weekend's sweep of St. Louis.
  • The Nats have surpassed the Dodgers in the NL projections, which now expect Washington to win 100 games as well as home field advantage through the NLCS.
  • Those same Nats have yet to break into the top three, but they're making a run for it, having improved their RPScore by 11 points in the last week and taking two of three from LA in LA.
  • The Giants finally scored double digit runs in a single game! They beat the Philadelphia Phillies 10-0 last Friday, becoming the last team to score 10+ in a game this season.
  • In fact, six teams scored 10+ that night, which was a season high.
  • Six teams scored 10+ again on Tuesday.
  • The Diamondbacks still have yet to allow 10 runs in one contest in 2017.
  • The home team is playing .562 ball through June 8, with a run differential of +267.

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