16 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/15: Astros, Yankees Battle for Top Spot

The New York Yankees are charging hard for that top RPScore spot, but the Houston Astros remain kings of the hill for now.

RPScores by select teams (season to date)

Top Teams through 6/15:
  1. Houston Astros (.604)
  2. New York Yankees (.602)
  3. Los Angeles Dodgers (.594)

Projected AL Seeds:*
  1. Houston (102 - 60)
  2. New York (96 - 66)
  3. Cleveland Indians (86 - 76)
  4. Boston Red Sox (87 - 75; 1st WC)
  5. Tampa Bay Rays (83 - 79; 2nd WC)
  6. Minnesota Twins (82 - 80; 1st out)

Projected NL Seeds:*
  1. Los Angeles (100 - 62)
  2. Washington Nationals (96 - 66)
  3. Chicago Cubs (84 - 78)
  4. Colorado Rockies (94 - 68; 1st WC)
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks (92 - 70; 2nd WC)
  6. Milwaukee Brewers & St. Louis Cardinals (81 - 81; 1st out)
*Margin of error (80% PI): +/- 8.8 wins

Comments and Observations:
  • While the Yankees and Astros are sucking up all the oxygen in the American League, the Boston Red Sox have been sneakily consistent and slowly improving. While I still project them to finish nine back of NY, the BoSox have a projected four-game advantage in the first wild card spot.
  • Speaking of hogging the spotlight, the NL West is hot right now, with the Dodgers projected to win 100 and the Rockies and Diamondbacks projected to win 90+. All three are more likely than not to reach the postseason, the two 90-game winners hoarding the wild card spots for themselves.
  • While two teams are running away with the NL Wild Card, the AL Wild Card remains a crazy mess, according to Craig Edwards.
  • Falling back to earth are the Philadelphia Phillies, reclaiming the RPScore basement from the San Diego Padres and projecting to finish 63-99.
  • The Phillies aren't just terrible, but terribly unlucky, with a win rate 73 points below their RPScore (the Rockies have been the luckiest at +95).
  • We have a new candidate for closest game of the season. Last Monday, June 12, the Chicago White Sox bested the Baltimore Orioles 10-7. However, that win was largely a function of sequencing luck (good hits at the right time or the lack thereof).  In Base Runs, it was a tie, 8.6 to 8.6.
  • The next day, the Minnesota Twins set the high water mark for hits in 2017 with 28 in one game (plating 20 along the way).
  • Single game feats notwithstanding, nobody's producing like the Yankees this year, plating 372 runs on 106 dingers.
  • Their run prevention might be even better, allowing the fewest hits, doubles and total bases in MLB.
  • The D'backs still have yet to allow double digit runs in one game this season.
  • Home teams are playing .554 ball to date with a run differential of +297.

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