MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Boston One Game Away

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Having taken two games of three against the Cardinals in St. Louis, the Boston Red Sox are only one game away from clinching a World Series at home for the first time since the Wilson Administration. Should they fail tonight, they have another chance tomorrow. It's no wonder then that Rational Pastime's postseason projection model is giving Boston an 83% chance to win it all.

The two remaining home games give the Red Sox a 9% advantage—as if they needed any. The Cardinals' odds of salvaging their third Fall Classic in eight seasons are a paltry 5:1. That said, I was wrong about them the last time I did these projections. I could be wrong again (it happens).

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: A Brand New Series

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

The Boston Red Sox took one on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals, and now we're right back where we started: series tied, one extra game in Boston (if necessary), aces pitching tonight and a 57-43% lead for the Red Sox in World Series probability. This is about as close to "It's a brand new series!" as it gets.

The updated progressive WS% chart fixes an error from earlier where I forgot to account for the off day between World Series Games 2 and 3.

With two of the three remaining possible games in Boston, the Red Sox now have a 5% home field advantage. In other words, if two of the three remaining potential games were in St. Louis, the Cardinals would currently enjoy a 53% chance to win it all. So it goes in the modern MLB. After tonight's game, regardless of outcome, Boston will enjoy a double digit home field advantage.

Check out the breakdown of individual World Series outcomes below.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Red Sox Singing the Blues in St. Louis

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Following the controversial ending of Game 3—which was called correctly, by the way—the St. Louis Cardinals took the lead over the Boston Red Sox in World Series probability. With a 2-1 game lead, St. Louis now has nearly double the chance of Boston in taking home the Commissioner's Trophy. The Cardinals are enjoying the highest WS% of any team this postseason and top the leaderboard for the first time since Boston lost Game 4 of the ALCS.

With an equal number of games remaining at both St. Louis and Boston (should the Series go seven), home field advantage has been eliminated for the time being. Should the BoSox pull out a road win against the Redbirds, however, Boston would regain the WS% lead and enjoy a home field advantage of approximately 5%.

Check out the game-by-game breakdown of remaining World Series outcomes below.

On the Ending of Game 3 of the 2013 World Series

Regarding tonight's call that ended Game 3 of the World Series:

According to the rulebook, this was exactly the right call. The relevant rules are 2.00 (which defines obstruction) and 7.06 (which instructs the umpire on how to rule in the event of obstruction).

As per the rules, Will Middlebrooks was called for obstruction because the umpires ruled that he impeded Allen Craig's path. The definition of obstruction does not require any contact to be made, nor does the fact that Middlebrooks was in the process of fielding the ball apply: once the ball is past the fielder he no longer has a right to the base path.

Was there anything Middlebrooks could have done to get out of the way in time to avoid an obstruction call? Probably not. Was he doing what he should have been doing as a fielder in diving for the ball? Yes, probably.

But the rule states that, once the ball is by the fielder, any impedance or hindrance of the baserunner shall result in an extra base should he then try to proceed to that base. It's a textbook example of obstruction and a perfect execution of the call by the home plate umpire.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Cards Close in on Sox

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Following a suspense-filled road win against the favored Boston Red Sox on Thursday night, the St. Louis Cardinals climbed back into contention and set their postseason high for World Series probability. With a 47% percent chance to win it all, the Redbirds are right back in it. At 53%, Boston registers its lowest World Series chances since the off day prior to Game 6 of the ALCS.

Since St. Louis was able to split the first two game at Fenway Park, they now have home field advantage for the remainder of the series. This advantage is worth about 4% of their title chances. In other words, if the two teams were playing at a neutral site, Boston would have a 14% advantage rather than 6%. Regardless of who wins on Saturday, this advantage will disappear once more.

Keep reading for updates on the most likely World Series outcomes.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Still Sox in Six

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Following their Game 1 triumph over the St. Louis Cardinals, the Boston Red Sox have increased their leading World Series probability to a dominant 72%. The Cardinals' WS% plummeted all the way down to 28%—their lowest since defeating the Pirates in the NLDS.

You'll note that the AL home field advantage has now disappeared. This makes sense, considering that there are now six games remaining: three in Boston and three in St. Louis. After tomorrow's game, the Cardinals will actually have a small home field advantage in their favor.

See below for the World Series breakdown and a ratings system update.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: BoSox Confirm Predictions

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

As projected at the start of the ALCS, the Boston Red Sox defeated the Detroit Tigers in six games. Also projected in the very first Rational Pastime MLB Postseason Projection of 2013, the Sox are on the way to face the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series.

Given the superior rating of the Red Sox as well as their home field advantage, the projection system gives Boston a 57% chance to defeat St. Louis.

Check out the World Series breakdown below.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Redbirds Punch Ticket

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

A Vegas favorite has fallen. At 4:1, the Los Angeles Dodgers were second only to the Boston Red Sox in World Series odds at the start of the postseason (and tops in the National League). But last night they were felled by the St. Louis Cardinals in six games.

For the record, Rational Pastime picked the Cardinals. In six.

By sending the Dodgers home, the St. Louis Cardinals raised their WS% to 45%—highest of their postseason, but still short of the Boston Red Sox (who will be the favorite should they advance).

The Cardinals' success was bad news for their AL counterparts. The Red Sox lost two points of World Series title probability when the best NL team made certain their appearance in the Fall Classic. The Detroit Tigers lost a point as well.

Check out series breakdowns, ratings updates and likely World Series outcomes after the jump. Keep reading for an explanation as to why my rating system disagreed with Vegas, and why I was pretty sure I was right (this time).

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Sox Lead Once Once Again Again

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

The Boston Red Sox have jumped way ahead on the World Series probability leaderboard following their conquest of the Detroit Tigers at Comerica. At a 48% chance to win it all, the Sox have set a new high for the 2013 campaign.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are close to their postseason low at 9:1 to take home the Commissioner's Trophy.

See series breakdowns, World Series outcomes and updated team ratings below.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Not a Day for Favorites

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Sorry for the delay yesterday, friends. Some personal interruptions kept me from posting. Here are the updated postseason odds for October 17 with limited annotation.

The frontrunners suffered defeats in the games of October 16, losing a bit of ground in the World Series and League Championship standings as well. St. Louis is once again the front-runner, with Boston dipping slightly into second place.

Series breakdowns, World Series projected outcomes and ratings are available below.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Bums Ain't Dead

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are still alive. With a little hustle, a little power, and a little help from an anemic St. Louis Cardinals outfield, LA managed to avoid a 3-0 situation at home. That said, their odds have only marginally improved.

As you can see, the Dodgers are still only 3:1 to win the National League pennant and 9:1 to win the World Series. The Cardinals' hopes deflated slightly, but they still lead all other teams in league and world championship probability (at 1:3 and 2:1, respectively).

The Dodgers victory was good news for the Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers, both of whom saw their World Series chances tick up by about one percentage point.

Check out LCS breakdowns and likely World Series outcomes below.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Papi Slam Worth ~8% World Series Probability

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia's line-drive single capped off one of the most dramatic playoff games in recent memory. The comeback has major implications for the World Series title probability leaderboard. A Sox loss last night would have dropped them to 13%. Instead, they're enjoying a relatively safer position at 31%

That's a swing of approximately 18%. According to FanGraphs, David Ortiz's grand slam was worth ~42% of the Red Sox single-game win probability in last night's contest. Simple multiplication would indicate that Papi's four-bagger was worth about 8% in World Series probability. That's a big swing for one... swing.

Boston's victory is also bad news for both the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers, who fare much better in projections when paired with the lower-rated Detroit Tigers. The comeback cost both teams about 1% of their World Series hopes.

Read about LCS breakdowns and World Series outcome updates below.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: What a Difference a Run Makes

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

How much difference can one run make? Well, for the teams competing in their respective League Championship Series, the answer is about 9% of their World Series title chances on average.

With their 1-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLCS, the Cardinals soared into first place on the World Series probability leaderboard. Their 40% chance to win it all is a new high for the 2013 postseason. On the other hand, LA's loss sent them down to 6%—their lowest mark this October.

In yesterday's other pitchers' duel, the Detroit Tigers claimed second place on the leaderboard for the first time since October 4th. The Boston Red Sox, on the other hand, dropped into third for the first time. Their 1-0 loss to Detroit cost them 13%—a whopping 3/8 of their previous World Series probability.

Keep reading for series breakdowns and expected World Series outcomes.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Redbirds on the Rise

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

A marathon contest in St. Louis resulted in a walk-off win for the Cardinals over the Los Angeles Dodgers. With their victory, the Redbirds climbed past 30% in World Series probability for the first time this October, once again threatening Boston's top spot. The Dodgers fell back into fourth behind the Detroit Tigers (who have yet to play).

This leaves the Dodgers with 3:1 odds to defeat St. Louis in the NLCS and 8:1 odds to win the World Series. The Cardinals' victory also had a slightly negative impact on the Red Sox, who would benefit from not facing such a strong opponent should they advance.

See below for series breakdowns, ratings and probable World Series outcomes.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Tigers Punch Ticket

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

With their Game 5 victory, the Detroit Tigers earned the right to face the Boston Red Sox in the 2013 American League Championship Series. The boys from Motown also moved into third place in the World Series probability rankings according to the Rational Pastime projections.

Check out LCS breakdowns and probable World Series outcomes after the jump.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Cardinals Top NL Hopefuls

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Having vanquished the pesky Pittsburgh Pirates, the St. Louis Cardinals moved on to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2013 National League Championship Series. With their NLDS victory, the Cardinals surpass the Dodgers in World Series probability, soaring into the #2 spot once again (but still well behind Boston).

In ALDS action tonite, the Detroit Tigers attempt to oust the hometown Oakland Athletics. The Game 5 match-up will determine Boston's opponent in the 2013 American League Championship series. The projection system favors Oakland by a narrow margin, almost wholly due to the A's home field advantage.

See below for series breakdowns and ratings updates.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Tigers Survive, Sox Thrive

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Having vanquished the pesky Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox now have a 38% chance—that's roughly 5:3 odds—to win the World Series according to Rational Pastime's rating and projection systems. This marks both the high point for their postseason and the high water mark for every team so far. In fact, the Red Sox have ranked first in six of seven projections: on 10/03, Boston finished behind St. Louis after their Game 1 victory. Of course, at that point the Sox had yet to play a playoff game.

By staving off elimination, the Detroit Tigers increased their World Series chances to 10%. They still trail their opponent, the Oakland Athletics, by 2%. This series will be resolved in a Game 5 contest in Oakland that this blog expects the A's to win.

Series breakdowns and ratings below the jump.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Bums Vanquish Barves, Move into Third

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Monday's slate of MLB postseason games was the most exciting yet, producing dramatic wins, crushing defeats and significant movement in the World Series prospects of each team. Of the three teams facing elimination, only one—the Atlanta Braves—fell by the wayside. The St. Louis Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays saw their championship probabilities rebound. While the leader of the pack—the Boston Red Sox—saw their championship hopes notably decline, they are still well ahead of their competitors.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, yesterday's big winners and first team to advance, climbed into a practical dead heat with the Oakland Athletics in World Series probability (still far behind the BoSox). The A's will boost their prospects significantly if they dispatch the Detroit Tigers tonight and claim a spot in the ALCS.

Check out series breakdowns after the jump.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: One-time Favorite Cardinals Facing Elimination

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight MLB playoff teams in 2013.

We've seen a lot of movement in the postseason prospects of our eight playoff teams over the past couple of days. The Tampa Bay Rays are now facing 10:1 odds just to defeat the Boston Red Sox, and 49:1 odds to win it all. The Oakland A's and Detroit Tigers evened up their series as well as their odds to advance.

Following major Game 3 victories, the Pirates and Dodgers are on the verge of usurping their better-seeded opponents. One of those top-seeds is the St. Louis Cardinals who, atop the World Series probability leaderboards just days ago, have now dropped to sixth and are facing an early exit.

Thanks to Boston's high probability of advancement to the ALCS, their position as highest-rated team in the postseason, St. Louis' probable exit and AL home field advantage, the Junior Circuit is now favored to win the World Series by a 61-39 margin. The chart below plots Boston's rise to prominence and the Cardinals' decline, along with the wavering odds of the other six contestants.

Check out series breakdowns beyond the jump.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Boston Announces Presence with Authority

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight MLB playoff teams in 2013. 

Technically difficulties prevented me from posting this before the start of today's games. Presented without commentary, here are the postseason projections from before the two Sunday NLDS match-ups.

League Division Series projections and team ratings following the jump.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Red Sox Reclaim Lead

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight MLB playoff teams in 2013. 

One day after the first full slate of League Division Series action, the Boston Red Sox reclaimed their World Series probability league closely trailed by the Detroit Tigers. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Atlanta Braves resurrected their prospects as the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers got a dose of postseason reality. Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays are facing steep odds to advance to the ALCS.

Check out series breakdowns beyond the jump.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Seeing (Cardinal) Red

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight MLB playoff teams in 2013.

After two Senior Circuit blowouts, the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers are making the best case for an NLCS showdown. By defeating the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 1, the Cards surpassed the idle Boston Red Sox for the lead in World Series victory probability. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw & Co. made the hometown Atlanta Braves look hapless at the plate.

With their victory, the Cardinals increased their championship probability by 6%; the Dodgers increased theirs by 3%. On the flip side, the Pirates saw their hopes dwindle from 8% to 4%, the Braves' from 9% to 5%.*

*Future posts will include a graphic demonstrating the shifting World Series championship probabilities.

Beyond the jump, I look at individual series and explain a bit more about my team rating and projection systems.

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Numbers Favor Sox, Cards

After a nearly two-year hiatus, baseball analysis is returning to Rational Pastime in the form of another round of MLB postseason projections. Thank you for stopping by. Let's get down to it.

This year, the numbers favor the Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals, projecting a rematch of the 2004 World Series. My projections give the BoSox 4:1 odds to win the Fall Classic, followed by the Cardinals at 5:1, the Oakland Athletics and Detroit Tigers at 15:2, the Tampa Bay Rays, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers at 10:1, and the Pittsburgh Pirates bringing up the rear at 11:1.

What numbers, you ask? I'm getting to that.

Since the AL won the 2013 All-Star Game, they will have home field advantage in Games 1 and 2 and, if necessary, 6 and 7. Naturally, this bolsters the chances for AL squads and depresses them for the NL--but not as much as you may think. Since home field advantage in baseball is only ~10% in interleague matchups, and because the net difference is only one game in seven, the best AL teams will only enjoy about a 1-2% increase in their chances of taking home the Commissioners Trophy. The AL as a whole is ~3% more likely to win it all, and the NL ~3% less likely.

Beyond the jump, I briefly explain the rating and projection systems and discuss series breakdowns.