27 October 2013

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Red Sox Singing the Blues in St. Louis

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five four three two remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Following the controversial ending of Game 3—which was called correctly, by the way—the St. Louis Cardinals took the lead over the Boston Red Sox in World Series probability. With a 2-1 game lead, St. Louis now has nearly double the chance of Boston in taking home the Commissioner's Trophy. The Cardinals are enjoying the highest WS% of any team this postseason and top the leaderboard for the first time since Boston lost Game 4 of the ALCS.

With an equal number of games remaining at both St. Louis and Boston (should the Series go seven), home field advantage has been eliminated for the time being. Should the BoSox pull out a road win against the Redbirds, however, Boston would regain the WS% lead and enjoy a home field advantage of approximately 5%.

Check out the game-by-game breakdown of remaining World Series outcomes below.

The most likely individual outcome is now a Cardinals win in five games. That is closely followed by a Red Sox win in seven. The most commonly picked outcome in this fall's simulations—a Boston win over St. Louis in six games—is now the least likely individual outcome remaining.

That said, Boston's advantage in an hypothetical Game 7 adds a bit of urgency to St. Louis' campaign.

Boston will retain that advantage due to home field and their superior rating. The Cardinals' one game lead in the Series is enough to help them overcome their deficit in the Rational Pastime ratings system for now, but my estimation of St. Louis' true talent will continue to drag them down in the projections throughout the Fall Classic.

Check in tomorrow to see if the Red Sox can't overcome last night's blunders and turn the odds back to their favor.

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