10 October 2013

MLB Postseason Projections 2013: Cardinals Top NL Hopefuls

This article is part of a continuing series examining the postseason prospects of the eight seven six five remaining MLB playoff teams in 2013.

Having vanquished the pesky Pittsburgh Pirates, the St. Louis Cardinals moved on to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2013 National League Championship Series. With their NLDS victory, the Cardinals surpass the Dodgers in World Series probability, soaring into the #2 spot once again (but still well behind Boston).

In ALDS action tonite, the Detroit Tigers attempt to oust the hometown Oakland Athletics. The Game 5 match-up will determine Boston's opponent in the 2013 American League Championship series. The projection system favors Oakland by a narrow margin, almost wholly due to the A's home field advantage.

See below for series breakdowns and ratings updates.

As noted above and in Wednesday's post, the system expects Oakland to defeat Detroit in Game 5. While the rating systems have them basically neck-and-neck, the home team in inter-divisional match-ups will win about 54% of the time. That said, the rating system doesn't account for Justin Verlander. In individual games, roster-level signals carry a lot more weight

Another strong signal that influences a team's chances for advancement is not being allowed to play anymore because your opponent beat you the required number of times. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, that signal is all too loud and all too clear.

With last nights' Game 5 victory, St. Louis returned the #2 spot in the Elo-based rating system.

Tune in tomorrow for analysis of the upcoming LCS contests.

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