Projections 2019: Astros Favored over Nats Once Again

The Houston Astros evened up the 2019 World Series last night against the Washington Nationals, but the two teams' prospects are anything but even. The favorite is still 61% to win it all, but as of this morning that favorite is from Houston. The most likely discrete outcome is Stros in six.

Projections as of 24 October 2019

Touts at 5Dimes remain more bullish on Houston than my numbers.

I wrote at the start that this was a record of models and simulations, and running them beside Henry towards the evening glass of beer, I found the one prayer that seemed to serve the autumn mood: O Baseball Gods, You've done enough, You've robbed me of enough, I'm too tired and old to learn to love, leave me alone forever.

Projections 2019: Astros Get One Back at Nats Park

The Houston Astros got one back last night at Nationals Park, and the Washington Nationals' chances of winning their first ever World Series took a hit. The most likely discrete outcome is now a Nats win in five. It makes sense that if they're going to win, Washington is most likely to do so before heading back to Houston. With the advantage in RPScore and home field, should Houston even it up tonight they will almost certainly be the favorites once again.

Projections as of 24 October 2019

The smart money at 5Dimes has been cooler on the Nats than I have been for most of the postseason. Today we see the biggest gap this October, with touts betting that I'm overvaluing the Nationals by about 10 percentage points.

Max Scherzer stepped into his private boat and waved goodbye and sailed back over a year and in and out of weeks and through a day and into the night of his very own room where he found his supper waiting for him—and it was still hot.

Projections 2019: The Nationals Have Won Two World Series Games against the Astros and OMG Wow

The citizens of Washington, DC, went 86 years between World Series game wins; they waited another 24 hours for their next one. The red hot Washington Nationals refuse to cower before the best team in baseball (or are they?). The Houston Astros will need to regain their footing on their opponent's home turf. The odds are against them.

Projections as of 24 October 2019

Bettors at 5Dimes agree the Stros are in a tight spot, but they also continue to believe that my system is overrating the Nats' chances. Later on the smart money will understand how the numbers loved the Nationals, that they did dare much for their sake.