21 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Astros Hold Slight Edge over Yanks in Bid to Face Series-Bound Dodgers

The Dodgers are heading to their first World Series in 29 years, while the Houston Astros neutralized the New York Yankees' advantage by forcing a seventh game at home.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams

Dodgers fans should be happy to see the Yankees' stumble in game six—RPScore says New York is the better team by about 20 points.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time

RPScore and home field advantage say the Astros are narrow favorites in tonight's winner-take-all contest. FiveThirtyEight, which dumps quite a bit more data into their model, agrees. The betting markets like the 'Stros slightly more. Pinnacle is offering 2.12 on New York and 1.826 on Houston, which translates to a 54-46% advantage for the Astros. Bovada is selling a Yankees win at +105 and an Astros win at -125, which approximates a 53-47% Houston ad.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

The Dodgers beat the Cubs in five games, an outcome I projected to be the third most likely (out of eight) at 15%.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

A Houston win will help the Dodgers' World Series chances tick higher. A Yankees win will push it slightly in the other direction. The effect of tonight's game's outcome on the two competing team's World Series chances will be… bigger. Check back soon to see how either the Yankees or Astros will stack up against this rejuvenated, dominant LA squad.

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