23 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Los Angeles Dodgers Favored over Houston Astros in World Series

Two dream seasons collided on Saturday night and only one could live on. In the end it was the long-term rebuilding project powered by saber-blog graduates that overcame the rejuvenated former (and perhaps future) superpower. The Houston Astros will face the Los Angeles Dodgers as underdogs.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams

The Astros and Dodgers have taken very different paths to the World Series. The Dodgers have but one setback, a nigh-inconsequential game four loss to the Cubs in the NLCS. The Astros rode the rollercoaster of a back-and-forth ALCS against the Yankees before coming out on top in seven games.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time

An Astros win over the Yankees in seven games was the most likely outcome projected by my model at 17%.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

The Astros face an uphill climb in the 2017 World Series, with the Dodgers 55-45% favorites. The most likely outcome is a Dodgers win in six games.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

At no point this season did I think my model would be the one underrating the Dodgers, but the bettors think it is: Bovada has the Dodgers as 60-40% favorites at post time.

Stop by on Wednesday to see how my numbers change for the Astros and Dodgers.

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