19 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Yanks One Game away from Series Berth, Cubs Live to Play One More Day

In what may have been the final multi-game slate of 2017, the New York Yankees took one step closer to their first World Series appearance since 2009 while the Chicago Cubs kept their title hopes alive for one more night. The Los Angeles Dodgers were unable to pull of the sweep, yet they remain very, very heavy favorites to off the Cubs in the NLCS. The Houston Astros, facing 3:1 odds in the ALCS, will lean heavily on their home field advantage to prevent a Yankees victory.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams

The Yankees' World Series odds have shot up to a comfortable 5:3 while the Astros' have plummeted to approximately 7:1. Despite their loss, the Dodgers only took a small hit, their title probably declining by about three points. The Cubs still face a steep climb up Ole Binomial Distribution Mountain.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time

The Astros have home field in the remaining games of the ALCS. They're going to need it. The Yankees are the better-rated team and have a one game lead, meaning they enjoy a 73% chance of advancing.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

Did I mention Ole Binomial Distribution Mountain and the climb the Cubs have to make? This is what it looks like. The Dodgers are still better than even to finish off the series in Chicago.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

The New York Yankees make their first appearance atop the discrete World Series outcomes leaderboard, projecting a loss to LA in seven. The previous most likely result now ranks eighth.

The American League is idle tonight, but it's still do-or-die for the Cubs and win-and-advance for the Dodgers. A Cubs win would move the needle a great deal more than last night's did, whereas a Dodgers win would put them soundly in control of their World Series aspirations. Check back tomorrow to see how the numbers tumble.

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