18 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Dodgers First to 50%

The ALCS and NLCS are moving in different directions. In the American League, the home team has won every game so far, with the New York Yankees knotting up their series with the Houston Astros 2-2. Those two squads are essentially neck-and-neck in terms of their pennant and title chances. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the Los Angeles Dodgers running the table, most recently taking a 3-0 lead over the Chicago Cubs with a win in the Windy City. LA is now the dominant favorite in both the LCS and World Series rounds.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams

The Dodgers' win put them over the 50% threshold in terms of World Series win probability, the first team to do so this season. Conversely, the Cubs are facing their longest odds yet in October at about 75:1. The New York Yankees are almost back where they were following their comeback ALDS victory over the Indians, while the Astros are in their worst position since losing to Boston in the third game of their division series.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time

The Yankees have the slightest of edges in the ALCS, their slightly better RPScore offsetting Houston's home field advantage in the remaining games. The Yankees would do best to win out and finish it off in six games. If it goes seven, Houston may have a razor-thin edge.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

The Chicago Cubs situation is dire: they're approximately 24:1 underdogs in NLCS. The Dodgers are about five times more likely to sweep than the Cubs are to pull off an historic comeback.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

The most likely discrete World Series outcome is now a Dodgers win over Houston in six games. The previous most likely result is now the second most likely.

All four teams are in action again tonight. One game will break a stalemate. The other may end a season and send the winner to the World Series. Both promise drama, excitement and a profound impact on each team's postseason probabilities. Check back tomorrow to see how it all shakes out.

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