29 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Dodgers Tie Astros, Reclaim Frontrunner Status

They may have waited eight innings to do so, but last night the Dodgers took the lead in game four of the 2017 World Series. By holding onto that lead, they reclaimed frontrunner status in title probability. Though nominally tied 2-2 with the Houston Astros, the Dodgers remain the slightly better team and, importantly, regain home field advantage for the remainder of the series.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time

All four discrete World Series outcomes are similar enough that it means little to say that one is more likely than another. The important takeaway is that the series must now head back to Los Angeles. In any game in LA, the Dodgers are likely to be favorites.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

One team will head back to Los Angeles with a one game edge. How much title probability will that one game confer? Check back soon to find out.

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