30 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Astros One Game, Thirty-One Percentage Points away from Title

There has been no shortage of drama in the 2017 World Series. Recovering from two separate 3+ run deficits, the Houston Astros won their final home game, putting them up 3-2 and one game away from their first Commissioner's Trophy in franchise history. The Dodgers aren't done, of course, though this is the closest they've come this year. They will have the benefit of home field advantage for two games in a row. The mantra for Houston should be to win it all in game six.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time

Houston is once again the series favorite, enjoying a 69% chance to win it all and a 44% chance to finish it off Tuesday night in LA. Betting markets agree, with Bovada selling an Astros World Series victory at -275 and a Dodgers win at +225. Adjusting for the vigorish, that works out to approximately 68-32% in Houston's favor.

Should they let the Dodgers back in, however, Houston will be underdogs in a winner-take-all seventh game.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results

If the Dodgers manage to stave off elimination for one more game, I'll be here to give you my odds. If the Astros pull it off, I'll be back at some later date to provide a recap of the 2017 postseason. Either way, check back soon for the probabilistic skinny.

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