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Both the flourish and the drought are uncharacteristic. More series have gone seven games than have gone only six, five or four since the World Series adopted the seven-game format in 1922. Nevertheless, it's a less-than-even proposition: 39% of series in the best-of-seven era have gone the distance.
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So let's savor tonight and keep in mind the lean times when baseball events like tonight's seemed rare. This year's seventh game pits the favored Los Angeles Dodgers against the never-say-die Houston Astros, who have faced adversity before in this postseason. This is it.
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My model, which (reminder) does not take into consideration lineups or pitching rotations, calls the Dodgers 56% favorites to win it all for the first time since 1988 and the Astros 44% underdogs to win their first ever title. FiveThirtyEight, which adjusts for pitcher quality, gives the Dodgers a bigger edge at 60-40%. The bettors at Bovada agree with Nate Silver & Co. this morning, selling LA at -162 and Houston at +141 (which, when discounting the vigorish, works out to about 60-40).
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At the start of the series, a Dodgers win in seven was the second most likely outcome at 18%; Astros in seven was the third most likely outcome at 14%.
This will conclude my regular coverage of the probabilistic wends and turns of the 2017 MLB Postseason. Check back soon for a review of my projections and the winner's path to baseball immortality.
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