26 May 2017

Ratings and Projections through 5/25: Dodgers #1, Astros Project to Win 99

The Los Angeles Dodgers are tops in RPScore, the Houston Astros are poised to finish with 99 wins and parity is the watchword of the American League so far this season.

Win Projections with 80% Prediction Intervals

Top-rated Teams through May 25:
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Houston Astros
  3. New York Yankees
Projected AL Top Seeds:
  1. Houston (99 - 63)
  2. New York (94 - 68)
  3. Cleveland Indians (90 - 72)
  4. Boston Red Sox (87 - 75; WC)
  5. Minnesota Twins (84 - 78; WC)
  6. Tampa Bay Rays (83 - 79; 1st Team Out)
Projected NL Top Seeds:
  1. Los Angeles (97 - 65)
  2. Washington Nationals (95 - 67)
  3. Chicago Cubs (90 - 72)
  4. Colorado Rockies (92 - 70; WC)
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks (90 - 72; WC)
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (87 - 75; 1st Team Out)
Comments and Observations:
  • Since my last post, the Chicago White Sox threw a one-hitter against the Seattle Mariners on May 19 and Houston one-hit the Detroit Tigers on May 22. Those were the sixth and seventh one-hitters of the season.
  • On May 24, the Cincinnati Reds caught the Indians stealing three times, the second time this season that happened (the Red Sox caught the Milwaukee Brewers stealing three times on May 9).
  • The Nationals continue to struggle with their pen and with subpar opponents, but my model still expects them to win the moribund NL East by 22 games.
  • The Indians should win their division by six games, the narrowest projected margin in the AL.
  • And yet, there are 14 American League teams within ten games or fewer of a playoff spot.
  • There are only six NL teams expected to finish that well.
  • The Rockies are playing well and winning better; Colorado's .633 win rate is 108 points above where RPScore expects them to be.
  • The Miami Marlins are almost as unlucky as the Rox are lucky; the Fish aren't great this year, but they're about 97 points better than the .356 win rate they've actually posted.
  • The Diamondbacks have scored the third-most runs in baseball this year even though their modal production is only one run.
  • The San Francisco Giants still haven't scored 9+ this season; the D'Backs still haven't allowed double digits.
  • The home squad has won 54.9% of games this season, with a run differential of +133.

19 May 2017

Debut RPScores 2017 and Observations about the Young Season

My RPScores and projections are making their formal debut of the 2017 season. Some of these numbers will surprise you. Others will confirm your suspicions. Remember that the season is early and the data still rely heavily on preseason projections. Follow the links to the main rating and projection pages for a full methodological explanation.

Win Projections with 90% Prediction Intervals

Top rated teams through May 18, 2017:
  1. Houston Astros (.606)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.595)
  3. New York Yankees (.590)
American League projections:*
  1. Houston (102 - 60)
  2. New York (96 - 66)
  3. Cleveland Indians (88 - 74)
  4. Baltimore Orioles (84 - 78; WC)
  5. Boston Red Sox (84 - 78; WC)
  6. Tampa Bay Rays (83 - 79; First Team Out)
National League Projections:*
  1. Los Angeles (98 - 64)
  2. Washington Nationals (96 - 66)
  3. Chicago Cubs (89 - 73)
  4. Colorado Rockies (88 - 74; WC)
  5. Arizona Diamondbacks & St. Louis Cardinals (87 - 75; WC)
  6. Milwaukee Brewers (80 - 82; First Team Out)
*90% prediction interval = +/- 13.3 wins

Observations and comments:
  • The Nationals have occupied the top RPScore spot for most of the season, and the top three for almost all of it, having dropped out in the middle of this week.
  • That's okay for now, since the Nats still project to finish a whopping 22 games over any NL East rival.
  • The New York Yankees may in fact be good again, currently projecting to finish with 96 wins, a 12 game lead in the division and a less than 5% chance of posting a losing record.
  • Despite rocky starts, my model and projections still like the Cubs and the Dodgers.
  • And despite being the best team in the game according to RPScore, win-loss record and simple Pythagenpat, RPScore still thinks the Houston Astros are outpacing their true record by about 100 points.
  • The only team yet to allow double digit runs in one contest is the... Arizona Diamondbacks?
  • Meanwhile, the only team that has yet to score 9+ in a single game is the San Francisco Giants.
  • The Washington Nationals lead in park-adjusted BaseRuns produced, while the New York Yankees are best in BaseRuns allowed and BaseRuns differential (both park-adjusted).
  • Last Sunday's slate was the first this season with 17 games, producing a season-high 190 runs between them.
  • However, Monday's 11.5 runs plated per game was the highest so far in 2017.
  • It was that same Sunday that the Angels matched the 2017 high water mark with five bases stolen in the same game, set earlier by the Reds on April 10th versus the Pirates.
  • Through May 18, 2017, the home team has won 55.6% of the time with a run differential of +154.