16 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Turner's Topper Takes Top Team to 2-0

Justin Turner's three-run walkoff blast in last night's second game of the 2017 National League Championship Series put the Los Angeles Dodgers up 2-0 over the Chicago Cubs, restoring LA's status as World Series favorites.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



In addition to being 87% favorites to finish off the Cubs, the Dodgers are now 45% favorites to win the 2017 World Series, taking a small but notable lead ahead of the idle Houston Astros on that leaderboard.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time


Chicago will almost certainly need to force a seventh game to defend their World Series title, whereas the Dodgers' modal winning outcome is now a sweep.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results


The most likely discrete World Series outcome remains a Dodgers win over Houston in seven games.



The New York Yankees host the Astros tonight in game three of the ALCS. New York is in better shape than Chicago, but not by much. Check back tomorrow to see where the American League teams stand in their hunt for October.

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