Jays Double World Series Expectancy as Giants Face Off against Favored Mets

This post is one in a series about the 2016 MLB Playoffs and World Series.





Last night, in a thrilling competition that included everything from beer-can projectiles to bullpen mismanagement and a dramatic three-run walk-off blast by Edwin Encarnacion, the Toronto Blue Jays eliminated the Baltimore Orioles from the playoffs. In doing so, the Jays nearly doubled their World Series expectancy from 7% to 13%. Toronto will begin the ALDS against the Texas Rangers as 60% favorites to advance.

The biggest loser of last night's game, other than Baltimore, is Texas, whose chances of advancing to the ALCS dropped 3%. The rest of the pack remains relatively unaffected by last night's results.

Tonight, the New York Mets face off against the San Francisco Giants for the National League Wild Card. RPScore rates the Mets and Giants almost even, but gives the edge to New York due to home field advantage. Tune in after tonight's game to see how the results of this contest affect the competing clubs and the remaining playoff squads.

Cubs, Red Sox Dominate World Series Probability Estimates as 2016 MLB Playoffs Commence

This post is one in a series about the 2016 MLB Playoffs and World Series.

Welcome back to Rational Pastime's coverage of the 2016 Major League Baseball postseason. In a change this season, my posts will be heavier on data and lighter on narrative. This is less a preference for data-driven and analysis and more a concession to spending more time with my infant son. Thanks for tuning in!



As in the past, I estimate each team's "true record" using my RPScore system. I simulate every possible postseason outcome, game-by-game, and calculate the frequency with which each squad wins each series. My system generates very different outcomes that you would expect if you relied on each team's win record from the regular season. For instance, while Texas finished with the top AL seed, RPScore actually considers the Rangers the weakest team in the playoffs, not expecting them to emerge from the ALDS.



Instead, RPScore expects either the Toronto Blue Jays (over the underdog Baltimore Orioles) to surpass the Rangers, moving on to lose to the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS. In the Senior Circuit, RPScore likes the Cubs all the way, advancing past either the New York Mets (or, less likely, San Francisco Giants), then defeating the Washington Nationals (favored over the Los Angeles Dodgers) to win the NLCS. The model then expects the Cubs to end their 108-year championship drought.

The Chicago Cubs and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Month

1908 Chicago Cubs by George R Lawrence (Public domain) via Wikimedia Commons

Compared to the soaring heights they attained in April and May, the Chicago Cubs of the past 30 days have seemed downright mortal. There were times when it seemed the 2016 Cubs were on pace to threaten their own regular season record of 116 wins, set 110 years ago. However, by the time baseball broke for the Midsummer Classic, the North Siders, while still very, very good, looked eminently beatable.

What is to blame for the Cubs' tumble from Olympus to the mundane realm of the other 29 teams? Is it truly poor performance? Bad luck? Reversion to their true talent level? Yes, yes and yes. The Cubs really have been subpar of late, although some metrics rate the team worse than others. The Cubs probably were not as good as their win rate, depending on what estimator one subscribes to. Finally, the Cubs' recent performance has sputtered due to abnormally bad luck.