01 October 2019

Projecting the 2019 MLB Postseason: Astros over Dodgers in Six?

It's time for postseason baseball, and with that it's time for my postseason projections. In the upcoming games, I have the Washington Nationals topping the Milwaukee Brewers and the Oakland Athletics downing the Tampa Bay Rays. For the whole shebang, I have the Houston Astros triumphing over the Los Angeles Dodgers, likely in six or seven games.

Projections as of 30 September 2019

I'm projecting the Astros and Dodgers as heavy favorites over whichever wild card opponent they face in the first round of the LDS. The New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves have more difficult roads ahead, but I still pick them as favorites over the Minnesota Twins and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively.

My projections were for the most part in line (pun intended) with bettors at 5Dimes yesterday. My model is a bit more bullish on the Cards and much, much more bearish on the Yankees. RPScore has ranked the Bombers a consistent, and not too close, third place behind Los Angeles and Houston for most of the season. Both my brain and my heart tell me I'm underrating the Yankees (and, as an aside, overrating the Nationals). Time will tell.

The most common discrete World Series result at this stage in the game is a 'Stros win over LA in six, followed closely by the same outcome in seven.

Stay tuned for updates as we get deeper into October.

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