23 October 2016

Which "Curse" Will End? Numbers Favor Cubs over Indians

This post is one in a series about the 2016 MLB Playoffs and World Series.

The Chicago Cubs made history on Saturday Night; they are primed to make more history in the days to come. In defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers in game six of the National League Championship Series, the Cubs clinched their first NL Pennant in 71 years. They head to Cleveland to face an Indians franchise that hasn't won a World Series in 68 years. My numbers say the Cubs will triumph, winning it all for the first time in 108 years.

According to my RPScore formula, the NL representatives are 64 points better than their AL counterparts. That advantage more than makes up for Cleveland's playing at home in four of the possible seven games. The gap between the teams is good enough to make the Cubs heavy 63% favorites to quench the longest title drought in North American sports.

The most likely single outcome is a Cubs win in five games, allowing them to clinch in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field. The Indians' best bet is to force the series to head back to Cleveland, winning it in seven.

Coverage will resume on Wednesday with an update on both competitor's chances in the Fall Classic. Tune in to see who has the upper hand, and by how much.

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