21 October 2015

Royals, Mets on the Brink of History

This post is part of a series about the 2015 MLB Postseason. Follow along here.

It comes as some surprise to me, the betting community and most analysts that we're only hours away from the end of both 2015 League Championship Series and that both higher seeds are likely to advance. The Kansas City Royals are nine innings away from reaching the World Series for the second consecutive season, while my top-rated team, the Toronto Blue Jays, face long 15% odds for a comeback. The Chicago Cubs are even worse off, trying to become only the second team to roar back from a 3-0 deficit; the North Siders are but 7% long shots to make history against the New York Mets.

Following their victories yesterday, the Royals and the Mets pushed their World Series chances into the 40-to-50-percent range, with Kansas City slight favorites. Those marks are both postseason highs for the respective frontrunners. Meanwhile, the Cubs have dipped to a new postseason low and the Blue Jays have sunk to depths not seen since they trailed the Rangers 0-2 in the ALDS.

According to the RPScore model, which admittedly has underperformed in this round, the Royals enjoy a 41% chance to win it tonight. One bright spot for Toronto: should they force a seventh game, both teams would be essentially even to represent the American League in the Fall Classic.

The RPScore model is giving the Mets a 44% chance of completing their first ever four game sweep in a seven game series, and a 93% chance of preventing Theo Epstein from pulling a 2004.

With their opponents on the brink of elimination, the Royals and Mets dominate the World Series final result leaderboard, with the most likely outcome being an exciting seven-game victory by Kansas City. On the other hand, the Metropolitans' best chance is to finish the Royals off in six. The Cubs still enjoy slim odds to win it all, with about a 1% chance to defeat the Royals in six.

Stay tuned for either an update of the playoffs picture (should the Jays or Cubs rebound) or a postmortem of the LCS round (should the Mets and Royals both advance).

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