23 October 2015

Mets Punch Ticket, Jays Stay Alive

This post is part of a series about the 2015 MLB Postseason. Follow along here.

Photo credit: slgckgc (Some Rights Reserved)

Two nights ago, the New York Mets completed a stunning upset of the Chicago Cubs, sweeping their NLCS opponents in four games. It was New York's first ever four game sweep and it put the Mets in the drivers seat for the World Series with a 46% shot to win it all. Meanwhile in the AL, the Toronto Blue Jays are holding on against the Kansas City Royals as both teams head back to the City of Fountains for the remainder of the series.

Largely due to the Mets' outright domination and the Cubs outright collapse, by the end of the NLCS both teams were essentially even according to RPScore. With the NL title in hand, the Mets reach a season high in both RPScore and World Series probability.

Read it and weep, Cubs fans: the Mets completed the four game sweep, which the simulator considered the least likely of eight possible NLCS outcomes at the start of the series. Whoops.

Though the Blue Jays are still on the edge of destruction, they have improved their odds of advancing to the World Series to 3:1. The Royals enjoy a 48% chance of knocking off their Canadian rivals this evening.

With the Mets moving on and the Royals still alive, both teams remain popular among the World Series final result leaderboard.

Regardless of which team wins the American League, the model is likely to pick that team as favorites over the Mets. The question is which team will it be, and how big their advantage? Stay tuned to find out.

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