28 October 2015

Royals 66% Favorites after Instant Classic

This post is part of a series about the 2015 MLB Postseason. Follow along here.

Just when we thought the playoffs couldn't get any more exciting, the Kansas City Royals and New York Mets proved us wrong. In a game of rueful valleys and dizzying peaks, the Royals tied game one of the 2015 World Series against dominant Mets closer Jeurys Familia in the ninth. Five innings later, Kansas City walked off with a sacrifice fly off the presumably immortal Bartolo Colon.

By the time they reached their beds, Alex Gordon & Co. were 66% faves to win the Fall Classic. The Mets, now 2:1 underdogs, are right back where they were after game three of the NLCS: not on top, but still in good shape.

With the possibility of a Mets sweep obviated, the distribution of World Series outcomes shifts to the right; the modal outcome is now a Royals win in six. The Metropolitans' best chance is to force a seventh game, though the Royals would likely be the favorites in that game as well. The chances of the Series lasting that long are still a healthy 32%.

Game two is pivotal for the chances of both World Series contenders. If the Royals win, they will have built a comfortable lead heading into the three day gauntlet against the Mets in Flushing. If the Mets win, they will have eliminated Kansas City's home field advantage and claimed it for their own. Will that be enough to put New York in the lead? Tune in tomorrow to find out.

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