30 September 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Introducing RPBlog Power Scores

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

Nationals Park • Photo credit: Me

Oh, hello again.

The 2014 MLB playoffs are upon us, and that means it's time for Rational Pastime's (nearly) annual postseason projections. I won't be authoring full posts until both play-in games are complete, but I would like to share with you the output from RPBlog's new rating system.

The new system is very similar to last year's, with a few key changes. Estimated true records now take into account park factors and Patriot's David Smyth's Base Runs system for estimating run differentials. These modifications have improved the RPBlog system's accuracy by a full percentage point (which is actually quite a lot). I'll go into more detail in future posts, but for now you can see the raw data we'll be working with by clicking on "Power Scores" at the top of the page. As in past years, these numbers will update with the conclusion of each day's slate.

Here are the rankings and scores of our playoff teams:
  • Washington Nationals: .584 (1st in MLB)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: .578 (2nd)
  • Los Angeles Angels: .572 (3rd)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: .561 (4th)
  • Baltimore Orioles: .557 (5th)
  • Oakland Athletics: .551 (6th)
  • Detroit Tigers: .538 (7th)
  • San Francisco Giants: .532 (9th)
  • Kansas City Royals: .518 (12th)
  • St. Louis Cardinals: .515 (13th)

Related thoughts:
  • Note that San Francisco, Kansas City and St. Louis ranked worse than other teams that did not reach the postseason, including the Seattle Mariners (.534, 8th), Cleveland Indians (.531, 10th) and Tampa Bay Rays (.522, 12th).
  • Though both the Nationals and the Dodgers rank higher than the Angels, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Angels with the best odds when the full projections come out thanks to the AL's home field advantage in the 2014 World Series.
  • My system believes Baltimore to be the most overrated of playoff teams, their .593 regular season record nearly forty points higher than their .557 estimated true record. This postseason will be a fun if imperfect test for the model.

Stay tuned as I convert these raw numbers into the odds of success for each team in the postseason.


p said...

I would just like to point out that Base Runs is David Smyth's system, not mine. I am a long-time user and booster of BsR, but nothing more.

JD Mathewson said...

My mistake. Thanks for the catch.