Benefit of the Doubt: Pitchers Can and Do Expand the Zone @ BtB

My latest Benefit of the Doubt piece examines how pitchers manage to expand the strike zone over the course of an at bat.

The sweet spot (not controlling for pitch type, handedness or other factors) seems to be about 0.6 ft. (7.2 in.) off the plate. A pitcher who keeps his pitches at that distance from the nearest boundary of the legal strike zone over the course of an at bat will get a free strike every fourteen called pitches or so.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Players Unions and the Economics of Warfare @ BtB

Marvin Miller, former executive director of the MLBPA, helped secure the current state of labor peace in Major League Baseball by declaring--and winning--the war against ownership. On the other hand, the NFL seems to be slipping into a new era of labor unrest. How do we get from labor war to labor peace? The answer is no different for economic warfare than it is for armed conflict and international security.

If I may borrow a bit from political science, there's a theory that non-violent disputes escalate to the level of armed conflict when rivals overestimate their own resources, underestimate their opponents' resources, and underestimate their opponents' resolve. Likewise, peace can only be achieved when both opponents reach agreement on these issues. Unfortunately, the information required to reach a consensus on this data can itself only be generated through war itself.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

(Photo credit: AP via SB Nation)

Take La Russa's MLBPA Comments with a Pound of Salt

A minor he-said-he-said tiff has broken out between St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa and MLBPA chief Michael Weiner. As the "deadline" for Albert Pujols' contract negotiation exclusivity bears down, La Russa attacked the MLBPA for pressuring the Cardinals superstar to hold out for a bigger pay day. Weiner flatly denied the accusations.

Before we take La Russa at his word, however, let's remember that he's A) management and B) carrying his own political baggage. Indeed, both Pujols' and La Russa's political leanings suggest an anti-union sentiment, as evidenced by their joint attendance at the Glen Beck rally in Washington, DC, this past summer.

I'm not saying that La Russa's accusations are downright false. I am saying that, considering his politics and his position, it's not unlikely that La Russa would exaggerate or overreact to any contact between Pujols and the MLBPA at this time.

Then again, I wouldn't put it past Weiner. Weiner represents the players, the players want big money, and many believe that the market is paced by the biggest deals offered to free-agents. Ignore the economic fallacies inherent in this way of thinking: this is how players--and analysts, and probably a couple of incompetent GMs--think. And of course, Weiner would deny any such implication.

Point being, always keep in mind the institutional and personal biases of public actors when deconstructing their public statements.

(Photo Credit: Wikipedia)

Benefit of the Doubt: Mo and the Wide Zone

When we calculate the LWD differential for every 75 pitches called (the average number thrown in a 9 inning matchup), we find Wide Zone Mo at the top of the list. In regular season games from 2008-2010, Mariano Rivera's zone (heat map above) has saved the Yankees about 1.61 runs every 9 innings. This works out to about 0.16 runs per outing. Considering how seldom Rivera allows any runs at all, the runs saved by his strike zone are especially valuable.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Benefit of the Doubt: A Tale of Two Hernandezes @ BtB

We know different pitchers have different strike zones, for better or worse. How much better and how much worse? Read my latest at Beyond the Box Score to find out.

As you can see, there was a reason why I picked Livan and King Felix for this example. Livan's personal strike zone has been the most pitcher-friendly, costing opposing teams 67 runs since the beginning of the 2008 season. On the other hand, Felix's personal strike zone has been the most hitter friendly, charitably awarding opponents 20 runs during the same time period.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Thoughts on the Mets and Bernie Madoff

Perhaps I'm the exception, but I learned from a young age to always keep track of my money, and always keep it in more than one place. This as true when it comes to a billion-dollar enterprise as it is with your 401k or your piggy bank.

Moreover, one assumption I've always held regarding capitalist success stories: maybe they made it to the top through hard work, maybe luck, maybe help from family and friends, and probably a little of all three, but one characteristic all corporate titans share is an unwillingness to play stupid with their money.

Not so with Fred Wilpon, majority shareholder in the New York Metropolitans baseball club.

You may already have read that the Mets' dealings with Bernie Madoff turned a lot of their black ink to red. As more information leaks out, we're discovering that Mets were far more tied up in Madoff money than had previously been expected.

Now, let's ignore that these new revelations raise the (yet unsubstantiated) possibility that Wilpon's close ties to Madoff make him culpable as a willing co-conspirator. At what point did the New York Mets decide to put a significant number of their many, many piggy banks in the trust of one man?

Bernie was part of the business plan for the Mets

The above quote, from the same NYT article linked in the previous paragraph, doesn't betray to what degree "Bernie" was a part of the business plan. No matter, we already know the degree: Wilpon has put a minority stake in the team up for sale to cover losses, and there's talk he may have to surrender his majority control. The point is that no one man, or organization, should ever represent a significant fraction of a one's financial planning.