30 August 2011

If the Season Ended Yesterday: BoSox, Phils Neck-and-Neck @ BtB

As of yesterday, the AL East winner was ~12% more likely to win the ALDS, ~7% more likely to win the ALCS, and ~5% more likely to win the World Series than the AL Wild Card. Think about that as the Yankees head into Beantown this week.

The Boston Red Sox have dethroned the Yankees in the AL East (at least for now), driving most of the changes in the playoff probability numbers. Boston's best are now in a dead heat with the Phillies as the favorites for the World Series, both coming in at 3:1. The Yankees dropped into the 3-spot as a result of their recent skid.
Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

23 August 2011

If the Season Ended Yesterday: Yankees Over Phillies @ BtB

Think the added value to taking the division instead of the wild card is negligible? Even though the two AL East behemoths are rather evenly talented, the Yanks are ~15% more likely to reach the ALCS than the Sox and ~10% more likely to win it. This is because of the top seed's home field advantage and more favorable draw.
Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

19 August 2011

Examining the Deliberate Pace of the Yanks and Red Sox @ BtB

We know that the Yankees and Red Sox take forever to finish. Why they take so long is still a bit of a mystery.
Both teams score a lot, frequently reach the playoffs and play important games (which I found to take longer than trivial games), and--perhaps most importantly--play each other quite a bit. But if the Yanks and Sox simply played a slower game because they produce more, then my models should predict game duration and pace as well for those two teams as it does for all the others. As it turns out, this is not the case.
Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

12 August 2011

Get Well Soon, Dave

Update 08/12/11: Mr. Cameron shares some good news...
The results of that test are in – I officially have no more leukemia in my body. The doctors won’t say I’m in remission until they discharge me from the hospital in a week or two, but given that I’m currently cancer-free, I’m happy to use that term, even if it is technically a little premature.


Dave Cameron--without whom the sabersphere wouldn't be what it is today--just announced that he is ill with Acute Myeloid Leukemia and will begin chemotherapy immediately.
History has given my doctors all kinds of data about cure rates and life expectancy, and statistical analysis is helping them decide just what kind of chemotherapy I’ll be taking in a few hours, which I’m really thankful for. But really, those numbers do nothing for me. I’m not going to be making very many decisions over the next few months. I’m just going to be rooting like crazy for the drugs to work. I need reasons for hope, and I won’t find much of that in the harshness of raw data.
--When Statistics Are Not Helpful, by Dave Cameron
Mr. Cameron's right, of course. He doesn't care about the numbers right now, and neither should we. This isn't the time for analysis; it's the time for all of us to get on the same side and root for the Big Win.
For now, I’ll just ask that you strongly consider donating both blood and platelets to the Red Cross – they have a critically low supply of both at the moment...
I'll be making an appointment as soon as this post goes up. If you qualify, and haven't donated in the last 56 days, I urge you to do so as well. (As a long-time supporter of and donor to the Red Cross, I urge you to do so anyhow).
See you all when I can. Don’t get too used to not having me around.
We won't, Dave. See you soon.