Our Hall of Fame Ballot

Update: Barry Larkin elected to Cooperstown by the Writers. Morris receives sixty-one more votes than Bagwell. 

As part of our obligations for membership in the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, we must submit a vote on each year's Hall of Fame Ballot.

Of course, even if we weren't obligated, we would anyway, because this is fun. Sturgeon General and yours truly each picked six players eligible for induction in 2012. Five of our selections overlapped, leaving a total of seven (out of a possible ten) votes. These were the votes we submitted to the BBA.

In the final BBA voting, only two players--Jeff Bagwell and Barry Larkin--surpassed the 75% threshold, making them the official BBA nominees of 2012. Below, we present our votes, alongside the BBA tallies, with explanations after the jump.

Player	S. General	J-Doug	RP Blog	BBA
Barry Larkin	Yea	Yea	Yea	84.25%
Jeff Bagwell	Yea	Yea	Yea	78.77%
Edgar Martinez	Yea	Yea	Yea	60.27%
Tim Raines	Yea	Yea	Yea	57.53%
Alan Trammel	Yea	Yea	Yea	44.52%
Mark McGwire	Nay	Nay	Nay	41.10%
Larry Walker	Yea	Nay	Yea	35.62%
Lee Smith	Nay	Nay	Nay	33.56%
Jack Morris	Nay	Nay	Nay	32.19%
Don Mattingly	Nay	Nay	Nay	29.45%
Rafael Palmeiro	Nay	Yea	Yea	28.77%
Fred McGriff	Nay	Nay	Nay	28.08%
Bernie Williams	Nay	Nay	Nay	11.64%
Juan Gonzalez	Nay	Nay	Nay	6.16%
Terry Mulholland	Nay	Nay	Nay	0%
Also on the ballot: Dale Murphy, Javy Lopez, Brad Radke, Tim Salmon, Bill Mueller, Phil Nevin, Tony Womack, Jeromy Burnitz, Brian Jordan, Eric Young, Ruben Sierra and Vinny Castilla.

Barry Larkin
J-Doug: Yea; Sturgeon General: Yea; BBA: 84.25%

Pros: Twelve-time All Star. Posted an exceptional 51.7 wins above replacement (rWAR) during his best ten-year stretch (1990-99).

Cons: If you can think of any, feel free to share in the comments.

J-Doug says: His best ten-year stretch leaves no doubt that he deserves this.

Sturgeon General says: Larkin was almost uniformly recognized as the NL's best shortstop throughout the late 1980s and 1990s. As a counterpart of Cal Ripken, he actually compares favorably to the Iron Man when it comes to rate stats.

Factual Statements about Tim Tebow

Broncos QB Tim Tebow
Photo credit: Wikipedia

If you're reading this, it probably means you haven't excised our blog from your RSS feed, yet. For that, I thank you. We're coming out of hibernation simply to share some statistics about the 2011 season of Denver Broncos Quarterback Tim Tebow, who...

• Completes 48.5% of his passes (last among qualifying [with at least fourteen attempts/game] quarterbacks)
• Averages 6.52 yards per pass attempt (27th among 32 qualifiers).
• Has thrown two interceptions (best among qualifiers)
• Averages 117 passing yards per game (worst among qualifiers).
• His team, the Denver Broncos, has won six straight games (third best in the NFL).
• They are 8-3 with Tebow under center.
• Their strength of schedule is 0.515 (fifth-toughest in the AFC).
• During their win streak, he has faced the Raiders (7-6), Chiefs (5-8), Jets (8-5), Chargers (6-7), Vikings (2-11) and Bears (7-6).
• Those teams combine for a record of 35-43, or 35-37 if you discount their games against the Broncos.
• Ranks 25th among 39 quarterbacks in win probability added
• Has netted -14.5 expected points added (34/39)
• Costs his team -0.04 points per play, according to expected points added (33/39)
• Completes 32.8% of deep pass attempts (15 yards or more; 1/39)

That is all.

Data courtesy of ESPN and Advanced NFL Stats

World Series Projections @ BtB

Over at Beyond the Box Score I predicted the Rangers to win the World Series in five games:

Point of fact: I did not expect the Cardinals to be here, not in August, not in September, not last week. My simulator didn't think any more highly of them. Yet, here we are. Our projections have the Rangers as 2:5 favorites, with the most likely outcome being a Texas win in five games.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

Postseason Projections and Research @ BtB

Over at Beyond the Box Score, I've been posting daily projections of the postseason campaigns. You can check out the latest here:

Projections Update: Bid Farewell to Tampa Bay

A.J. Burnett's competent performance put the Yankees back into the discussion as they head back to New York for Game 5, while the Cardinals and Diamondbacks still find themselves on the brink.

Also up is an article measuring the improbability of the September collapses and comebacks that we witnessed this season.

It Happens Once Every 250,000 Septembers

Less than a week ago, the odds of either outcome occurring were closer to 1 in 1000 than 1 in 100. On September 4th, the odds for either joint-outcome occurring were a dismal 1 in 100,000. Two days later, the odds of both Tampa Bay and St. Louis playing October were a mind-boggling 1 in 250,000.*

I'll be continuing this coverage over at BtB until the World Series concludes.

If the Season Ended Yesterday: Phillies Extend Lead @ BtB

While the Phillies remain the best bet for the World Series, the streaking Tigers and Rays--as well as the slumping Red Sox and Rangers--are complicating the picture. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

If the Season Ended Yesterday: A Phanatic Phinish @ BtB

For the third week in a row we have a new frontrunner in our postseason simulation series. If the season ended yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies would repeat their 2008 glory and avenge their 2009 loss to the New York Yankees. So says our Log5 postseason simulator based on numbers from Baseball Prospectus.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...

If the Season Ended Yesterday: BoSox, Phils Neck-and-Neck @ BtB

As of yesterday, the AL East winner was ~12% more likely to win the ALDS, ~7% more likely to win the ALCS, and ~5% more likely to win the World Series than the AL Wild Card. Think about that as the Yankees head into Beantown this week.

The Boston Red Sox have dethroned the Yankees in the AL East (at least for now), driving most of the changes in the playoff probability numbers. Boston's best are now in a dead heat with the Phillies as the favorites for the World Series, both coming in at 3:1. The Yankees dropped into the 3-spot as a result of their recent skid.

Continue reading at Beyond the Box Score...