23 October 2018

The Dodgers' World Series Hopes Live in the Fat Left Tail

World Series Probability Distribution as of October 23

As we near first pitch in the 2018 Fall Classic, the first between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles (née Brooklyn) Dodgers since 1916, the money is flowing heavily into the Sox camp. It's no surprise that the 108-win juggernaut that hasn't lost a playoff game on the road is a 58% series favorite, but my model says it's much closer.

My system has been pretty bullish on the Dodgers since the All-Star Break (and especially since September), rating them likely a better squad than Boston. Boston does have home field advantage, so I'm not projecting the Dodgers in a blowout. Actually, the two most likely events my model predicts are Sox wins in six and seven games. It's in the fat left tail that the Dodgers' best chances reside.

Follow @rationalpastime on Twitter or here on the MLB Playoffs section of the Rational Pastime Blog for updates every step of the way.

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