12 October 2018

Dodgers Favored, AL a Tossup as LCS Play Commences

Projected Series Outcomes as of October 12

Top seeds won the day in the four league division series, confirming both the wisdom of their seeding and the accuracy of the RPScore model. The second full round of playoff baseball will be the real test, with my model and simulator picking the lower seeds in both contests.

RPScore considers the Houston Astros the best team in the American League, but the Boston Red Sox won 108 games so home field advantage belongs to the latter. The result is a tossup, with the Stros lightly favored over the Sox.

The Senior Circuit match-up isn't nearly so close, with RPScore heavily preferring the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew have home field advantage thanks to their superior record, but that's not enough to make them the favorites in the NLCS. As a result, my simulator picks Los Angeles to advance to the Fall Classic 56% of the time.

Prior to the wild card and LDS rounds, bettors thought I was highly overvaluing the Dodgers. Now, Pinnacle and Rational Pastime's prices for a Dodgers World Series victory have since converged are converging. Bettors remain high on the Astros, pricing them 9% better than my model does.

The modal outcome of the 2018 National League Championship Series is a Dodgers win in six games; the median outcome is a LA win in seven. The most likely Brewers victory comes in game seven on the road.

The 2018 American League Championship Series is almost as close as a series can get. While my simulator has the Astros winning 51% of the time, the modal outcome is a Sox victory in seven. The median outcome is a Houston win in seven, while the Astros' best bet to advance is a victory in six.

At no point during the LDS did any of the lower seeds post a higher world championship probability than any of the higher seeds.

Follow @rationalpastime on Twitter or here on the MLB Playoffs section of the Rational Pastime Blog for updates every step of the way.

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