Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff TeamsFor the first time since the start of the preseason, the Cleveland Indians are not the most favored team to win the World Series. That honor currently goes to the Dodgers, 7:3 favorites, followed by the 3:1 Houston Astros. With their postseason in the balance, the Nats' 23:1 odds are their worst yet in October.
World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over TimeHouston finished off Boston in four games. This was the second-most likely outcome predicted by my model at the start of the series, with a 21% likelihood (a five-game Houston victory was the modal projection at 23%).
Estimated Probability of Discrete Series ResultsFor the second time in three games, the Washington Nationals squandered six innings of no-hit baseball by one of their two dominant aces. They now face the precipice of defeat, likely to fall to the Cubs in this best-of-five NLDS. However, if the Nats can hold on in game four, they will be slight favorites to win a fifth game in DC and advance to their first ever NLCS.
Estimated Probability of Discrete Series ResultsThe Yankees needed to win three in a row after dropping the first two games in Cleveland. New York has won the first two, but they still face an uphill battle against the Indians, needing a win on the road to complete the upset (a 44% possibility).
Estimated Probability of Discrete Series ResultsAt 16%, a Dodgers sweep of the Diamondbacks was the fifth most likely outcome projected by my simulator.
Estimated Probability of Discrete Series ResultsA Cleveland Indians five-game victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2017 World Series has slipped from the most likely discrete outcome to the seventh most likely. A Dodgers victory over Houston in seven now tops that leaderboard.
The outcomes of
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