26 March 2016

Rating Systems Challenge: No System Pulls Away after Sweet Sixteen

This post is part of a series about the 2016 NCAA Tournament.

There was more than a little movement on the Rating Systems Challenge leaderboard through the Sweet Sixteen. Vegas, Sagarin and the USA Today Postseason Poll now lead the field. The preseason polls that led the field through the first weekend have tumbled down to sub-chalk levels. Nevertheless, the field is still wide open, with only a single Elite Eight pick separating the best system from the worst.

Let's have another shout out for Warren Nolan's index, nailing the most picks so far. Nolan Power's future is somewhat cloudy going forward, however, being one of the 15 systems to pick the ousted Michigan State Spartans to advance to the Final Four.

I would also like to call attention to a new system: Team Rankings' Predictive Power Rankings index. Team Rankings is struggling so far this March, but its national champion—Kansas—remains alive.

Top seeds are heavily favored by the 22 systems as we head into the Elite Eight. Every system picked North Carolina to advance to the Final Four, while 19 picked Kansas. No systems picked Notre Dame or Syracuse to reach the Final Four.

There's quite a bit of chalk in this weekend's picks, with the exception of the systems heavily favoring Oklahoma over Oregon. Virginia is heavily favored over Syracuse as well, but most systems picked Michigan State to win that match-up.

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