17 October 2015

Royals Take Jays Down a Peg as Cubs, Mets Open

This post is part of a series about the 2015 MLB Postseason. Follow along here.

Photo credit: Me (Some Rights Reserved)

By taking game one of the 2015 American League Championship Series, the Kansas City Royals wiped out the Toronto Blue Jays' series advantage and now enjoy a 52% chance of winning a second straight pennant. The also improved their World Series championship chances to 3:1, their postseason high. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs open the NLCS in Flushing, Queens, favored 58-42 against the New York Mets.

In their loss to the Royals, the Blue Jays' World Series probability plummeted 13%. This is good news for the National League, as the Jays lead all in RPScore. Both the Cubs and the Mets saw their odds slightly improve.

While the simulator now has the Royals winning slightly more often than the Blue Jays, it nevertheless picks a Jays win in seven as the most likely single outcome. The Royals' best chance is a win in six.

As I noted yesterday, the Cubs are favored over the Mets in the NLCS. The sim expects the Cubs to win in five or six games, while the Mets' best hope is a seven game series.

The Royals make their debut on the top ten likely World Series results, ranking fourth with a win over the Cubs in seven games.

With all four teams in action, stay tuned to see whether the Blue Jays can reassert their dominance and if the Mets can climb ahead of the Cubs in World Series probability with a game one victory.

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