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Photo credit: Me • Creative Commons
Following another exciting day of Division Series action, one American League squad inched closer to elimination while another earned one day's reprieve. The Houston Astros are now 3:1 favorites to win the World Series after going up two games to one on the Kansas City Royals (now 20:1 underdogs). Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays fought back down two games to one, earning a fourth game in Arlington against the Texas Rangers. Though still favored to advance, at 8:1 to win it all they still trail the Jays (at 6:1) in the Fall Classic.
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National League play resumes today, with all Senior Circuit clubs tied at one game apiece. The Chicago Cubs remain the NL's best chance to win it all at 16%, followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers at 11%.
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The Royals are 4:1 long shots to survive to the next round; my model gives the Astros nearly a 60% chance to finish their Kansas City rivals at home this afternoon. Even if the series returns to KC, the Astros will enjoy a slim advantage.
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Though Toronto is in much the same position as Kansas City, down 2-1 and facing elimination, my RPScore calculations still figure the Blue Jays are a better team than the Rangers. Therefore, the playoff simulator has Toronto advancing more often, twice out of every three runs or so. Nevertheless, the simulator also gives Texas a pretty good chance of finishing what they started at home in Arlington.
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The Chicago Cubs are 2:1 to finish off the Cardinals in their two games at Wrigley and 58% favorites to advance to the NLCS for the first time since 2003.
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The Mets head back to Flushing looking to avenge the loss of Ruben Tejada. As we all know, the best revenge is living—and playing—well. There is a 49% chance that the Mets will live and play well enough to advance to the NLCS, sending the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chase Utley home for the winter.
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Stay tuned to see what the Royals and Blue Jays chances are should they survive, and what the National League picture looks like following today's gauntlet.
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