19 October 2015

LCS Outcomes Totally Not Rigged Say Hired Goons

This post is part of a series about the 2015 MLB Postseason. Follow along here.

Photo credit: Me (Some Rights Reserved)

The New York Mets continued to defy expectations last night, defeating the Chicago Cubs and taking a 2-0 lead to Chicago. This is definitely the work of determined and honest teams, and not the result of a conspiracy, say the hired goons who showed up on my doorstep early this morning.

With their victory, the Metropolitans improved their odds of a World Series victory to 3:1, their best this postseason. The Cubs chances to win it all dropped to 8:1, their worst odds since defeating the Pirates in the NL Wild Card game.

If the Cubs are going to advance, they're going to have to win at least one game in New York. Their chances of doing so are only 24%. On the other hand, the Mets enjoy an 18% chance to sweep the series and a 39% chance to clinch a World Series berth before they leave Chicago.

After an off day, the ALCS picture remains unchanged. The Blue Jays head home needing to win twice to stay alive, while the Royals enjoy a 15% chance to sweep and 2:1 odds to reach the World Series before returning home to Kansas City.

A Royals-Mets World Series is looking more and more likely. The model and simulator would favor KC in that series, with the most likely outcomes being a Royals victory at home.

Stay tuned to see how the positively honest Blue Jays respond to the unimpeachable Kansas City Royals in the ALCS, and what effect said outcome might have on a postseason that a duet of large, uninvited men of mysterious origin have convinced me is totally on the up-and-up.

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