17 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: San Fran Golden in Pennant Clincher

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: randychiuCreative Commons 2.0

The games were close, but the series wasn't. Knocking off the defending NL Champion St. Louis Cardinals, the San Francisco Giants are heading to the World Series for the first time since all the way back in 2012. It was only the second time in a rather unpredictable postseason that the Rational Pastime model picked a series correctly.

Standing in the way of the Giants' third World Series Championship in five years are the surging Royals of Kansas City, the slightest of favorites in the upcoming contest.

The clinching game was also the second consecutive in which the Giants improved their World Series expectancy. At 49%, they're (obviously) at a postseason high, slight underdogs only because of the American League home field advantage. In fact, their Power Scores are basically identical. If the National League had won the 2014 All Star Game, San Fran would be favored 52-48, instead.

Despite the fact that the Cardinals had home field in the NLCS, the Giants superior talent simply proved too much to overcome. San Francisco's 4-1 series win was the third most likely result out of eight, according to the model's results at the outset.

With Kansas City being very slight favorites over the Giants, the model is currently predicting a Royals victory in what would be the seventh game of a rather exciting World Series. The Giants' best bet is to win it in six.

I'll be back on Tuesday to preview the start of the 2014 World Series and the probabilities of the various outcomes that result in either the Kansas City Royals or the San Francisco Giants taking home this year's Commissioner's Trophy

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