25 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: A Royal Coronation?

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: HarshLightCreative Commons 2.0

Three games into the 2014 World Series, the most likely result is now a victory by the Kansas City Royals. Having lost their first game at home, the San Francisco Giants woke up today 7-3 underdogs. Worse for them, the brief home field advantage that the Boys by the Bay enjoyed has now evaporated; the playing field is level once again. Though the journey is far from over, Kansas City is now decidedly in the driver's seat.

Three games in, the Royals have twice the shot at the Commissioner's Trophy than the Giants. With an equal number of possible games remaining in San Fran and KC, neither team enjoys home field advantage. This will change, however. From here on out, the advantage for Kansas City will only increase.

The modal outcome is now a Royals win at home in six, according to the RP model. KC also has a 4-1 shot at winning out before the series heads back to the Great Plains. The Giants' best bet is to force a seventh game; there's a 40% chance it will get that far.

Check back Sunday, weather permitting, to see how the most pivotal game in the Series thus far will affect each team's chances.

No comments: