15 October 2014

MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giants Find Their Heart in San Francisco

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: Bryce EdwardsCreative Commons 2.0

Tuesday saw the San Francisco Giants regain the upper hand at home against the St. Louis Cardinals, followed by the Kansas City Royals' seventh consecutive postseason victory. The Royals' win set a postseason high in WS%, just short of the 50% mark, and pushed the Baltimore Orioles to the brink of elimination.

The Orioles' postseason future is fading fast: they now face 24-1 odds to win it all, 13-1 odds to advance and slim 3-1 odds simply to bring the series back to Charm City. In the NLCS, the Giants are now 72% to advance and 2-1 to win it all. On the other hand, St. Louis is facing their longest odds since they were tied with the Dodgers in the NLDS.

Baltimore's only hope is to win four straight and complete the nigh-on-unprecedented comeback from down 3-0. They enjoy only 7% odds of pulling of the feat. A Royals sweep is now more likely than not, and they have a 77% chance of celebrating their return to the Fall Classic at home.

The modal outcome in the NLCS is now a Giants win in five. There's a 56% chance that the Giants will advance before the series returns to St. Louis. The Cards' best bet is to push the series to seven games. That's the only situation in which the Gateway to the West's odds are better than the Golden Gate's.

As far as World Series outcomes are concerned, a Royals win over the Giants in Kansas City is a 23% possibility—the two series leaders dominate the likely results chart. History buffs may be disappointed to realize that a rematch of 1966 World Series opponents Baltimore and St. Louis is now less than a 2% likelihood. A Show Me State Showdown is a 26% probability, though it's mostly Kansas City holding up their end of the bargain.

Stop by tomorrow for updated ratings, probabilities and charts following tonight's LCS action including a possibly decisive game in Kansas City.

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