Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Chalk Begins to Crumble

Last night, 4 Louisville surpassed 7 Florida.
Image credit: Wiikipedia 

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With the defeat of 1 Syracuse by 2 Ohio State, and lacking a surviving entrant in the West regional final, Pure Chalk falls into the second division of the Rating Systems Challenge for the first time. Twelve systems are currently outperforming chalk.

Among the results of yesterday's games:

• The ESPN/USA Today Poll (preseason) leapfrogs the Survival Model for the top spot, having picked both 4 Louisville and Ohio State to advance. The Survival Model is still tops in correct picks overall.
• Syracuse's loss knocks out ESPN InsideRPI's National Championship pick. This system is the first to lose its top pick.
• Eight systems in total picked Syracuse to advance to the Final Four; six picked the Orange to advance to the final game. These systems are concentrated near the bottom of the standings.
• The loss of 7 Florida to Louisville ruined the AP Poll's (postseason) perfect Final Four. The ESPN/USA Today Poll (preseason) is the only system with its Final Four intact.

Rank	System	R64	R32	S16	E8	FF	NCG	Champion	PPR	Total	Pct	Correct
1	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	230	200	280	160	0	0	UNC	800	870	99.9	72.4%
2	Survival Model	250	200	280	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	810	99.3	74.1%
3	AP Preseason	210	220	280	80	0	0	UNC	800	790	98.8	69.0%
4	Jeff Sagarin	230	200	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	710	90.8	67.2%
5	ESPN Decision Tree	210	220	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	710	90.8	65.5%
6	Sonny Moore	230	200	200	80	0	0	Ohio St	640	710	90.8	67.2%
7	ESPN National Bracket	220	200	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	700	88.8	65.5%
8	FiveThirtyEight	220	180	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	680	83.7	63.8%
8	Pomeroy	220	180	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	680	83.7	63.8%
10	LRMC Bayesian	200	180	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	660	77.9	60.3%
11	ESPN Simulation Model	220	180	160	80	0	0	Kentucky	800	640	71.3	62.1%
11	Lunardi RPI	200	200	240	0	0	0	UNC	800	640	71.3	62.1%
13	Pure Chalk	220	220	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	640	640	71.3	65.5%
13	AP Postseason	220	220	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	640	640	71.3	65.5%
15	Vegas	210	220	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	800	630	66.8	63.8%
16	ESPN CBPI	220	200	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	800	620	63.2	63.8%
17	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	220	200	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	640	620	63.2	63.8%
18	ESPN InsideRPI	200	180	200	0	0	0	Syracuse	320	580	47.8	58.6%
19	Nolan Power Index	190	160	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	640	550	36.2	55.2%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Rank	System	South	East	West	Midwest	Correct	PPR
1	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	UK	OSU	L'Ville	UNC	72.4%	800
2	Survival Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	74.1%	800
3	AP Preseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	69.0%	800
4	Jeff Sagarin	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	67.2%	800
5	ESPN Decision Tree	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	65.5%	800
6	Sonny Moore	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	67.2%	640
7	ESPN National Bracket	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	65.5%	800
8	FiveThirtyEight	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	63.8%	800
8	Pomeroy	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	63.8%	800
10	LRMC Bayesian	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	60.3%	800
11	ESPN Simulation Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	62.1%	800
11	Lunardi RPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	62.1%	800
13	Pure Chalk	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	65.5%	640
13	AP Postseason	UK	OSU	Florida	UNC	65.5%	640
15	Vegas	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	63.8%	800
16	ESPN CBPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	63.8%	800
17	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	63.8%	640
18	ESPN InsideRPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	58.6%	320
19	Nolan Power Index	UK	Cuse	Murray St	UNC	55.2%	640