14 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: 'Stros Strike First

It seems this postseason is a feast-or-famine affair. No slugfest this one, as the Houston Astros down the New York Yankees 2-1 in game one of the 2017 American League Championship Series. The Astros are now frontrunners, slipping ahead of the idle Los Angeles Dodgers to become 2:1 World Series favorites.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



The Yankees' odds slipped to 4:1, worse than they were coming in but better than they were after four games of their ultimately successful division series against Cleveland.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time


The Astros are now 64-36% favorites to win the ALCS according to my model, with the modal projection being a Houston victory in game six. The Yankees' best hopes at the moment involve forcing a seventh game.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results


In a throwback to my All-Star Break projections on July 13, the most likely discrete World Series outcome is once again Dodgers over Astros in seven games.



All four surviving playoff teams are in action today, so expect some wild swings in the numbers; check back tomorrow to see just how much and in which direction.

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