26 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Astros Pull Even after Rowdy Game Two

The Houston Astros will not go quietly into hibernation. George Springer & Co. took the Los Angeles Dodgers on a wild ride last night, dealing their opponents their first major setback of the 2017 postseason. With the World Series knotted up at 1-1, and with home field advantage transferring temporarily to Houston, the Astros are now effectively tied with the Dodgers in terms of title probability.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time



In fact, the Astros' odds to win it all are technically shorter than the Dodgers', with my simulator rounding down Houston's 50.2% title chance to 50-50. The betting markets agree that the series has tightened, but still believe my model is overselling Houston. Bovada at post time was offering even money on the Astros but still selling a Dodgers title at -130, translating into an implied probability of 53-47% in favor of LA.

Back to my projections: the most likely discrete outcome is still a Dodgers win, now in seven games. the Astros enjoy 5:1 odds of putting the series away before they had back to LA.

Estimated Probability of Discrete Series Results


The series heads to Houston tomorrow, with the Astros hoping to put it away at home. For their part, the Dodgers wouldn't mind winning out in Houston, either. It's 3:1 the 2017 World Series doesn't make it out of Texas. What will the odds look like after game three? Check back this weekend to find out.

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