30 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Astros One Game, Thirty-One Percentage Points away from Title

There has been no shortage of drama in the 2017 World Series. Recovering from two separate 3+ run deficits, the Houston Astros won their final home game, putting them up 3-2 and one game away from their first Commissioner's Trophy in franchise history. The Dodgers aren't done, of course, though this is the closest they've come this year. They will have the benefit of home field advantage for two games in a row. The mantra for Houston should be to win it all in game six.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time



29 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Dodgers Tie Astros, Reclaim Frontrunner Status

They may have waited eight innings to do so, but last night the Dodgers took the lead in game four of the 2017 World Series. By holding onto that lead, they reclaimed frontrunner status in title probability. Though nominally tied 2-2 with the Houston Astros, the Dodgers remain the slightly better team and, importantly, regain home field advantage for the remainder of the series.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time



28 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Astros Heavy Frontrunners for First Time This Postseason

The Houston Astros took a 2-1 lead in the 2017 World Series and now enjoy a 68% chance of winning their first ever title. The Los Angeles Dodgers championship probability now stands about where it did at the beginning of the NLCS vs. Chicago.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time



26 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Astros Pull Even after Rowdy Game Two

The Houston Astros will not go quietly into hibernation. George Springer & Co. took the Los Angeles Dodgers on a wild ride last night, dealing their opponents their first major setback of the 2017 postseason. With the World Series knotted up at 1-1, and with home field advantage transferring temporarily to Houston, the Astros are now effectively tied with the Dodgers in terms of title probability.

World Championship Probabilities by Playoff Team over Time



25 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Dodgers' Projected World Series Chances Reach 69%

The Houston Astros' roller coaster ride of World Series title hopes continues, dropping game one to the Los Angeles Dodgers and watching their chances of winning the Commissioner's Trophy dive to 31%. While LA sets a postseason high with a 69% chance to win it all, Houston's odds stand about where they did after Jose Altuve put them up 2-0 in game seven of the ALCS.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



23 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Los Angeles Dodgers Favored over Houston Astros in World Series

Two dream seasons collided on Saturday night and only one could live on. In the end it was the long-term rebuilding project powered by saber-blog graduates that overcame the rejuvenated former (and perhaps future) superpower. The Houston Astros will face the Los Angeles Dodgers as underdogs.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



21 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Astros Hold Slight Edge over Yanks in Bid to Face Series-Bound Dodgers

The Dodgers are heading to their first World Series in 29 years, while the Houston Astros neutralized the New York Yankees' advantage by forcing a seventh game at home.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



19 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Yanks One Game away from Series Berth, Cubs Live to Play One More Day

In what may have been the final multi-game slate of 2017, the New York Yankees took one step closer to their first World Series appearance since 2009 while the Chicago Cubs kept their title hopes alive for one more night. The Los Angeles Dodgers were unable to pull of the sweep, yet they remain very, very heavy favorites to off the Cubs in the NLCS. The Houston Astros, facing 3:1 odds in the ALCS, will lean heavily on their home field advantage to prevent a Yankees victory.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



18 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Dodgers First to 50%

The ALCS and NLCS are moving in different directions. In the American League, the home team has won every game so far, with the New York Yankees knotting up their series with the Houston Astros 2-2. Those two squads are essentially neck-and-neck in terms of their pennant and title chances. On the opposite end of the spectrum we have the Los Angeles Dodgers running the table, most recently taking a 3-0 lead over the Chicago Cubs with a win in the Windy City. LA is now the dominant favorite in both the LCS and World Series rounds.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



17 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Yanks Back on Their Feet, Have Long Way to Go

The New York Yankees came back home and reverted back into the offensive powerhouse we've all come to know and love/revile. The Houston Astros are still in the driver's seat, of course, up 2-1 with a maximum of four left to play, two in New York and two at home. Nevertheless, the Bronx Bombers are showing some signs of life, rebounding to 5:1 World Series hopefuls.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



16 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Turner's Topper Takes Top Team to 2-0

Justin Turner's three-run walkoff blast in last night's second game of the 2017 National League Championship Series put the Los Angeles Dodgers up 2-0 over the Chicago Cubs, restoring LA's status as World Series favorites.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



15 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Dodgers and Astros Inch Closer to World Series

Both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros are now heavy favorites to advance to the World Series. The Yankees have a 4:1 shot at rebounding from yet another 2-0 deficit while the Cubs are looking at 3:1 for a chance to defend their title.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



14 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: 'Stros Strike First

It seems this postseason is a feast-or-famine affair. No slugfest this one, as the Houston Astros down the New York Yankees 2-1 in game one of the 2017 American League Championship Series. The Astros are now frontrunners, slipping ahead of the idle Los Angeles Dodgers to become 2:1 World Series favorites.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



13 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Cubs Advance, Houston Hosts Yanks, Dodgers Favored

Following another long night in a short series full of pain and ecstasy, heartbreak and triumph, sloppiness and gross feats of athleticism at the boundary of human ability, it was the defending World Series Champion Chicago Cubs that emerged from the melee, beaten but still beating. The Washington Nationals' hopes of emerging from the first round for the first time in team history, perhaps not so unpredictably, have once more collapsed into a smoking pile of ignominious October rubble. The postseason moves on with the Houston Astros hosting the New York Yankees tonight to begin the ALCS.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



12 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Yankees Shock "The Land" as Nats Force Game 5 versus Cubs

It all began at 3:10 Central Daylight Time. What followed was seven hours and 37 minutes of heart-thumping, chest-clutching, blood-pressure-elevating win-or-go-home baseball. When it was all over, the New York Yankees had finished off the one-time World Series favorite Cleveland Indians and the Washington Nationals held off the defending World Series Champion Chicago Cubs for one more night, forcing a winner-take-all game five in Washington, DC.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



10 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Dodgers World Series Favorites Once More

The Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers both moved on to the LCS on Monday, downing their respective opponents the Boston Red Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks. With the Cleveland Indians' loss to the New York Yankees, forcing a fifth game in the ALDS, LA becomes the new World Series favorite. The Washington Nationals will head into the not-so-friendly confines of Wrigley Field today Wednesday facing long odds to advance and hoping to force a fifth game in DC.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



09 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Sox, Yanks Live to Fight Another Day

It was win or go home for the two AL East competitors in the 2017 MLB Postseason, and win they did. The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees staved off elimination for one more day, but they still face long odds to climb their way to the front of the pack. The Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros remain favorites to represent the American League in the League Championship Series.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



08 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Nats Bounce Back while Dodgers Assert Status

All four Division Series are now two games in, with three teams standing out as World Series favorites, three teams staring into the abyss, and two suiting up for a protracted battle.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



07 October 2017

MLB Postseason: First Full Slate Improves Odds for Indians, Astros, Dodgers and Cubs

Blogger's note: today's guest post is written by J D-Mathewson in the voice of JD Mathewson.

From 1:07 PM to 1:08 AM ET yesterday there was nearly nonstop baseball. When it was all over the postseason picture became a little bit clearer although, as our favorite commentator says, you can't predict baseball, Suzyn.


Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams


06 October 2017

MLB Postseason 2017: Faves Thump Chumps, Tribe and 'Stros Improve World Series Chances

Blogger's note: A spreadsheet error (mine) was overvaluing the Diamondbacks' chances by 2% and undervaluing Boston's chances by 1%. I have fixed the error going forward.

The Indians and Astros began yesterday's games as favorites and ended them even stronger. The first- and second-seeded teams in the American League downed the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox by a combined score of 14-2. Cleveland's and Houston's odds to win the 2017 World Series improved to 28% and 19%, respectively.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



05 October 2017

2017 MLB Postseason: Diamondbacks Prevail over Rockies in Slugfest Elimination, Face NL Fave Dodgers

The field is set. With the Arizona Diamondbacks' raucous victory over the Colorado Rockies in the 2017 NL Wild Card Game, Division Series play will begin with both top-seeded wild cards moving on to face the top-seeded division winners. Arizona takes on the overall #1 seed Los Angeles Dodgers with a 43% chance of pulling off an upset.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



04 October 2017

2017 MLB Postseason: Yankees Bounce Back, Down Twins, Face Tribe

The starting pitcher had recorded a grand total of one out in the first game of the 2017 MLB postseason when it seemed as if the playoff field's second best team was about to be bounced from competition. Nevertheless, the New York Yankees did what they were expected to do (and what they always seem to do to the Minnesota Twins), advancing to the American League Division series for the first time in five years. New York now heads to Cleveland to face a torrid Indians team that is favored 56-44% to reach the ALCS.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams



02 October 2017

2017 MLB Postseason: Tribe Poised to End Drought

As the 2017 edition of the Major League Baseball postseason begins, we see good reason to expect the Cleveland Indians end their 69-year-old World Series Championship drought. The Tribe enter the playoffs as 3:1 favorites according to my model, besting the Dodgers (18%) who were torrid much of the year and the Astros (16%) who led the American League much of the season.

Estimated Series Win Probabilities for Playoff Teams through 10/2