04 August 2017

Ratings and Projections through 8/3: Dodgers Have a 9:1 Shot at Record 117 Wins

The Dodgers are projecting to win 111 games and have an outside shot at at a record 117. Meanwhile, the top three rated teams remain the same.

Projected End-of-Season Win Totals with 80% Prediction Intervals


Top Teams through 8/3:
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers (.614)
  2. Houston Astros (.615)
  3. Cleveland Indians (.578)

Projected AL Seeds:*
  1. Houston (103 - 59)
  2. Cleveland (91 - 71)
  3. New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox (88 - 74)
  4. New York or Boston (1st WC)
  5. Tampa Bay Rays (84 - 78; 2nd WC)
  6. Kansas City Royals (83 - 78; 1st out)

Projected NL Seeds:*
  1. Los Angeles (111 - 51)
  2. Washington Nationals (96 - 66)
  3. Chicago Cubs (88 - 74)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks (91 - 71; 1st WC)
  5. Colorado Rockies (89 - 73; 2nd WC)
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (83 - 79; 1st out)
*Margin of error (80% prediction interval): +/- 6.2 wins

Comments and Observations:
  • The Dodgers are on pace to win 111, via my projections.
  • Craig Edwards explores the scenarios that can get LA to 117 (and set a new MLB regular season win record).
  • My numbers put LAD-117 in the 90th percentile of simulated outcomes, giving the Dodgers a 10% chance of setting the record.
  • Two teams that are in line to reach the postseason are underwater in RPScore: Colorado at .498 and Kansas City at .492.
  • The Chicago White Sox' RPScore is down to .412, bringing up the rear for the first time all season.
  • The battle for the AL East continues, with the Yankees and Red Sox projecting to tie in the end-of-season projections.
  • The Nationals continue to lead in double-digit games with 18, with the Rockies and Astros right on their heels at 17.
  • On Wednesday, August 2, there were six shutouts out of 14 games played. That's a 2017 high.
  • Boston beat Cleveland 12 - 10 last Tuesday, August 1, but in Base Runs terms it was the closest game of the year: 8.87 - 8.87.
  • The home team has won 54.2% of the time this season with a run differential of +275.

Good Links:
  • Steve Bartman via Maury Brown upon receiving a World Series ring from the Chicago Cubs: "My hope is that we all can learn from my experience to view sports as entertainment and prevent harsh scapegoating, and to challenge the media and opportunistic profiteers to conduct business ethically by respecting personal privacy rights and not exploit any individual to advance their own self-interest or economic gain." 
  • Speaking of scapegoats, I remember rooting hard for Hideki Irabu, who we all know turned out to be less successful than the hype demanded and met a tragic end by his own hand. Ben Reiter tells his story.
  • Paul Lucas has two great pieces about the Houston Astros' iconic "tequila sunrise" uniforms, a style that they wore from 1975 through 1986. Read 10 interesting facts about those far-out threads and how they came to be in the first place.
  • A lot has changed about baseball since then, but not so much that we're ready for robot umps, says Ryan Davis.

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