31 July 2017

Ratings and Projections through 7/30: Indians Quietly Third Best Squad in Baseball

Hey, everyone! The Cleveland Indians are actually playing pretty well. It's hard to notice, sometimes, with the Dodgers and Astros tearing it up, but the Tribe are currently the third best squad in the game. Projections, observations and good links below the jump.

Projected End-of-Season Win Totals with 80% Prediction Intervals


Top Teams through 7/30:
  1. Los Angeles Dodgers (.644)
  2. Houston Astros (.623)
  3. Cleveland Indians (.581)

Projected AL Seeds:*
  1. Houston (105 - 57)
  2. Cleveland (91 - 71)
  3. New York Yankees (90 - 72)
  4. Boston Red Sox (86 - 76; 1st WC)
  5. Kansas City Royals (85 - 77; 2nd WC)
  6. Tampa Bay Rays (82 - 80; 1st out)

Projected NL Seeds:*
  1. Los Angeles (111 - 51)
  2. Washington Nationals (97 - 65)
  3. Chicago Cubs (89 - 73)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks (90 - 72; 1st WC)
  5. Colorado Rockies (88 - 74; 2nd WC)
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (83 - 79; 1st out)
*Margin of error (80% prediction interval): +/- 6.5 wins

Comments and Observations:
  • It's lonely at the top: the gap between the #1 Dodgers' .644 RPScore and the #9 Cardinals' .526 RPScore is greater than the gap between the Cards' and the #30 Giants' .413.
  • My projections simulator expects the Yankees' current half-game lead over the Red Sox to expand to four games by season's end.
  • The Cubs' recently acquired 2.5 game lead should grow to six games before the start of the playoffs.
  • The Oakland A's and Philadelphia Phillies both project to finish 32 games out in the division.
  • The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants project to finish 40 and 48 games back, respectively.
  • In a game we'll all remember for this, the Miami Marlins and Texas Rangers combined to post 32 runs on July 26, a season high.
  • The Nationals set a new season high by parking eight homers in a single game last Thursday afternoon against the Brewers.
  • That game included a statistically improbable back-to-back-to-back-to-back homer barrage by Bryce Harper (makes sense), Ryan Zimmerman (sure), Brian Goodwin (okay, he's a speed guy but he's been homering a lot lately) and Wilmer Difo (huh?).
  • Craig Edwards pegs the odds of similar outbursts at about 864,000:1.
  • Anthony Rendon hit another one out of the yard that inning, helping the Nats tie the MLB record with five dingers in a single frame.
  • No wonder the Dodgers are kicking butt: they've kept a lid on the proceedings by allowing the fewest runs, hits, doubles, homers, walks and total bases of any team this season.
  • The mean margin of victory on Saturday was only 1.9 games, a season low. 
  • The home team is winning at a .542 clip with a run differential of +236.

Good Links:
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