30 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/29: Dodgers, Astros Poised for Huge Seasons

The top three RPScore teams are still the same, but the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers are pulling away from the pack, both currently projecting to post 105 wins this season.

Win Projections with 80% Error Bars


Top Teams through 6/29:
  1. Houston Astros (.628)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.623)
  3. New York Yankees (.579)

Projected AL Seeds:*
  1. Houston (105 - 57)
  2. New York (90 - 72)
  3. Cleveland Indians (90 - 72)
  4. Boston Red Sox (87 - 75; 1st WC)
  5. Tampa Bay Rays (82 - 80; 2nd WC)
  6. Texas Rangers (81 - 81; 1st out)

Projected NL Seeds:*
  1. Los Angeles (105 - 57)
  2. Washington Nationals (96 - 66)
  3. Chicago Cubs (86 - 67)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks (95 - 67; 1st WC)
  5. Colorado Rockies (89 - 79; 2nd WC)
  6. St. Louis Cardinals (82 - 80; 1st out)
*Margin of error (80% prediction interval): +/- 8.3 wins

Comments and Observations:
  • Houston is so good right now that they project to win the AL Central by 24 games.
  • Every AL team currently projects to finish at most 10 games out of a playoff spot.
  • Five NL teams project to miss by 13 or more.
  • My ratings and projections still aren't buying the first place Milwaukee Brewers, ranking 19th in RPScore and projecting to miss the playoffs by five games.
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the skids lately, losing eight of their last 10.
  • They remain the luckiest team in baseball (defined here as win rate minus RPScore), a true .500 team that's playing like a .580 team.
  • They also remain in control of the second NL wild card.
  • Owners of the projected #1 NL wild card, the Arizona Diamondacks finally allowed double digit runs yesterday when they permitted 10 St. Louis Cardinals to cross home plate.
  • They were the last team yet to allow 10+ this season.
  • Said Cardinals remain the projected first team out of the playoffs, likely finishing four games behind the suddenly stable Chicago Cubs for the NL Central and seven games behind the Rox for the wild card.
  • There are only two teams yet to be shut out this year: the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals.
  • Those Nats matched an MLB 2017 high (first set by the Dodgers on June 3) with seven stolen bases against the Cubs on Tuesday, knocking opposing catcher Miguel Montero clean off the team.
  • Montero blamed Jake Arrieta's slow delivery, and while Miggy's comments were inadvisable, Travis Sawchik's investigation indicates that he kind of had a point.
  • The home squad is playing .546 ball in 2017 with a run differential of +249.

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