23 June 2017

Ratings and Projections through 6/22: Houston Astros at High Water Mark

The Houston Astros are playing at the top of their game, posting their highest RPScore of the season thanks to yesterday's road victory over the Oakland Athletics. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Dodgers are ascendant and the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals are hanging on, despite their skids.

RPScores Trend for Select Teams (Season to Date)


Top Teams through 6/22:
  1. Houston Astros (.622)
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers (.610)
  3. New York Yankees (.585)

Projected AL Seeds:*
  1. Houston (105 - 57)
  2. New York (92 - 70)
  3. Cleveland Indians (92 - 70)
  4. Boston Red Sox (87 - 75; WC1)
  5. Tampa Bay Rays (84 - 78; WC2)
  6. Seattle Mariners (81 - 81; 1st out)

Projected NL Seeds:*
  1. Los Angeles (103 - 59)
  2. Washington Nationals (96 - 66)
  3. Chicago Cubs (86 - 76)
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks (95 - 67; WC1)
  5. Colorado Rockies (93 - 69; WC2)
  6. Milwaukee Brewers & St. Louis Cardinals (81 - 81; 1st out)
*Margin of error (80% PI): +/- 8.7 wins

Comments and Observations:
  • Despite dropping eight of their last 10 games and falling out of first place in the AL East, I still have New York taking the division over Boston by 5 games in my projections.
  • This is because RPScore gives the Yankees a .585 rating versus the Red Sox' .538, and because my projections see the Sox playing an average .520 opponent the rest of the way, while the Yanks face a .508 schedule.
  • The D'Backs and Rox maintain their stranglehold on the NL wild cards, the latter projecting to best their competition by 12 games.
  • The Nationals have been saved by their offense. Despite recent pitching woes, their 12 double-digit performances are tops this season.
  • Arizona still has not allowed 10+ in one game in 2017.
  • The Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds both had three-triple games last week, on 6/16 and 6/17 respectively. 
  • Both teams lost their games.
  • Only one other team posted three triples in a game this year: Pittsburgh on 4/28 against the Marlins (they won, though).
  • Yesterday's slate saw seven double digit performances, a season high despite there being only 12 games on the schedule.
  • Yesterday's 12.8 runs per game is also a season high, pushing the running total for the season up to 9.4 r/g (yet another season high).
  • The home team is playing .549 ball this year with a run differential of +237.

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