We've reached the point in the postseason where small mistakes yield huge impacts. But not for a few inches, Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Céspedes might have maintained the lead proffered by Michael Conforto. Unfortunately for the New York Mets, those inches made a tremendous difference in their chances of winning the 2015 World Series. Instead of evening it up, the Mets will be facing elimination tonight against the Kansas City Royals. The favorites have a 90% chance of winning it all. The underdogs are in their worst shape since game four of the NLDS.
Not only do the Royals enjoy a 90% chance of winning this World Series, they own a 46% probability of doing it tonight in Queens. By pushing the Mets to the edge, the Royals have reduced the chances of a seven game series to 23%.
The result of tonight's game will determine tomorrow's programming. Should the Royals secure their first World Series championship in three decades, tune in for a summary of Kansas City's dream run and a postmortem of my projections. Should the Mets hold on and force a sixth game in the City of Fountains, stay tuned for our usual programming.